Dolphins @ Colts: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2024)

Sun, Oct 20, 2024, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Indianapolis Colts

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Miami Dolphins

2-3 · Power #18

final

Final

Indianapolis Colts

3-3 · Power #21

▲ winner

Closing spread

IND -3.5

✓ IND W

Total

43.5

▼ Under · 26 pts

Model before kickoff

MIA 23–26 IND

✓ IND (62%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenIND -3.5

CloseIND -3.5

Total42.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenIND -3.5

no move

CloseIND -3.5

No change since the open

Total

Open42.5

▲ 1

Close43.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened IND -3.5 · unchangedmodel IND -3

model IND -3

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 70%, covered 56% (96 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenIND -3.5

CloseIND -3.5

Total42.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like IND as a 3.5-point home favorite against MIA, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 3 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: IND won 16–10; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 26 points stayed under 43.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 44%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.1 against an average line of 4.1; 42.3 points a game (usually 43.7). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	WSH vs CLE 2024 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & total	-3.5	34–13	W	O43.5
Close	SEA vs MIA 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar season form & situation	-4.5	24–3	W	U41.5
Close	CHI vs LAR 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar season form	-3.5	24–18	W	O40.5
Close	PIT vs DAL 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & spread	-2.5	17–20	L	U44.5
Close	HOU vs JAX 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar situation	-5.5	24–20	L	U46.5
Loose	MIN vs IND 2022 · Week 15 · loose · similar rest & situation	-3.5	39–36	L	O47
Loose	IND vs CHI 2024 · Week 3 · loose · similar situation	-2.5	21–16	W	U43.5
Loose	PHI vs ATL 2024 · Week 2 · loose · similar season form	-5.5	21–22	L	U46.5
Loose	SEA vs JAX 2021 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & situation	-4	31–7	W	U44.5
Loose	TB vs DEN 2024 · Week 3 · loose · similar situation & team ratings	-5.5	7–26	L	U40.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIA LLLLW	1-4	20%	1-1	0-1
IND LWWWW	5-1	83%	3-0	1-1

Venue/role: MIA away, as underdog; IND home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIA UUUOU	1-4	20%	2-3
IND UUOOU	3-3	50%	3-3

Stayed under: it needed 24 in the 4th quarter and got 6. 47% of games with totals 40.5–46.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MIA	4-6 40%	3-7 30%	2-8 20%
IND	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

MIA 8–11 IND IND leads · 19 games since 1999 · IND has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MIA+1.5 →−1.2▼ 2.7#23

IND−0.6 →−0.8▼ 0.2#22

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

MIA

Longer bar = better

IND

#31

Offense

IND better ▶

#16

#13

Defense

◀ MIA better

#19

−0.4 #23

Turnovers

IND better ▶

+0.2 #11

65 plays #7

Pace

◀ MIA faster

58 plays #28

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MIA has the ball

Advantage: IND defense

	MIA off	IND def	Edge
Points / game	12.0 #32	23.2 #18	IND
Yards / play	4.65 #29	5.74 #26	Even
EPA / play	−0.22 #32	+0.01 #20	IND
Success rate	37% #31	41% #12	IND

When IND has the ball

Even matchup

	IND off	MIA def	Edge
Points / game	23.2 #16	22.6 #17	Even
Yards / play	5.79 #9	5.25 #12	Even
EPA / play	+0.01 #13	−0.04 #13	Even
Success rate	40% #26	41% #9	MIA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

MIA scoring against the IND defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIA scored	2.6 #29	2.6 #32	5.2 #32	3.2 #25	3.6 #28	6.8 #30
IND allowed	3.8 #9	4.2 #7	8.0 #5	5.0 #18	10.2 #31	15.2 #30

IND scoring against the MIA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IND scored	5.8 #10	2.7 #30	8.5 #25	2.7 #29	12.0 #1	14.7 #2
MIA allowed	7.6 #31	7.2 #18	14.8 #28	4.0 #9	3.8 #7	7.8 #8

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.