Jets @ Steelers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2024)

Sun, Oct 20, 2024, 8:20 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Pittsburgh Steelers

Weather at kickoff56°F5 mphDryWeather watch ›

New York Jets

2-4 · Power #23

final

Final

Pittsburgh Steelers

4-2 · Power #12

▲ winner

Closing spread

NYJ -2.5

✓ PIT W

Total

40.5

▲ Over · 52 pts

Model before kickoff

NYJ 21–19 PIT

✗ NYJ (57%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPIT -1.5

CloseNYJ -2.5

Total37.5 → 40.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenPIT -1.5

4 → NYJ

CloseNYJ -2.5

4 pts toward New York Jets

Total

Open37.5

▲ 3

Close40.5

Up 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened PIT -1.5 · closed NYJ -2.5 · moved 4 toward NYJmodel PIT -3

model PIT -3

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 66%, covered 56% (64 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPIT -1.5

CloseNYJ -2.5

Total37.5 → 40.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NYJ as a 2.5-point road favorite at PIT, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: PIT won 37–15 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 52 points went over 40.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 45%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.9 against an average line of 2; 41.7 points a game (usually 44). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	NO @ MIN 2023 · Week 10 · loose · similar rest & season form	-3	19–27	L	O41
Loose	NE @ CAR 2021 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest & situation	-3.5	24–6	W	U42
Loose	MIN @ CAR 2021 · Week 6 · loose · similar situation & season form	-2.5	34–28	W	O45.5
Loose	NE @ NYJ 2022 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & season form	-1.5	22–17	W	U40
Loose	WSH @ NYG 2022 · Week 13 · loose · similar situation	-1.5	20–20	L	U40.5
Loose	MIA @ NO 2021 · Week 16 · loose · similar season form & rest	-1.5	20–3	W	U37.5
Loose	GB @ MIN 2023 · Week 17 · loose · similar rest & season form	-1	33–10	W	O42.5
Loose	JAX @ TB 2023 · Week 16 · loose · similar rest & season form	-1.5	12–30	L	U43
Loose	NO @ CAR 2022 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest	-3	14–22	L	U41
Loose	CIN @ NO 2022 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & situation	-1	30–26	W	O43

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NYJ WWLLL	2-4	33%	1-1	2-1
PIT –WLLW	3-2	60%	1-1	1-0

Venue/role: NYJ away, as favorite; PIT home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NYJ UUUUO	2-4	33%	2-4
PIT –UOUO	2-3	40%	4-2

Went over in Q4. Of 73 earlier overs in games with totals 37.5–43.5, 25% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NYJ	4-6 40%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%
PIT	7-3 70%	6-3 67%	5-4 56%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

NYJ 6–10 PIT PIT leads · 16 games since 2000 · PIT has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NYJ−1.2 →+0.2▲ 1.4#15

PIT−0.4 →+1.4▲ 1.8#10

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

NYJ

Longer bar = better

PIT

#22

Offense

Even

#20

Defense

Even

−0.2 #20

Turnovers

PIT better ▶

+1.2 #3

63 plays #15

Pace

Even

63 plays #14

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NYJ has the ball

Advantage: PIT defense

	NYJ off	PIT def	Edge
Points / game	18.8 #24	14.3 #2	PIT
Yards / play	4.87 #23	5.04 #6	PIT
EPA / play	−0.04 #21	−0.11 #6	PIT
Success rate	41% #21	41% #14	PIT

When PIT has the ball

Advantage: NYJ defense

	PIT off	NYJ def	Edge
Points / game	20.7 #22	18.0 #7	NYJ
Yards / play	4.76 #26	4.55 #2	NYJ
EPA / play	0.00 #15	−0.10 #8	NYJ
Success rate	42% #17	40% #9	NYJ

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

NYJ scoring against the PIT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NYJ scored	4.0 #19	5.7 #24	9.7 #21	4.8 #16	4.3 #25	9.2 #22
PIT allowed	5.7 #26	2.7 #1	8.3 #6	0.0 #1	6.0 #18	6.0 #3

PIT scoring against the NYJ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PIT scored	2.7 #29	4.7 #27	7.3 #31	6.0 #8	7.3 #5	13.3 #8
NYJ allowed	4.5 #18	6.5 #13	11.0 #17	4.0 #11	3.0 #2	7.0 #5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.