Titans @ Bills: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2024)

Sun, Oct 20, 2024, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Buffalo Bills

Weather at kickoff65°F11 mphgusts 25DryWindy Over 46% of 93 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Tennessee Titans

1-4 · Power #26

final

Final

Buffalo Bills

4-2 · Power #4

▲ winner

Closing spread

BUF -9.5

✓ BUF W

Total

41.5

▲ Over · 44 pts

Model before kickoff

TEN 16–26 BUF

✓ BUF (81%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBUF -8.5

CloseBUF -9.5

Total42.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBUF -8.5

1 → BUF

CloseBUF -9.5

1 pt toward Buffalo Bills

Total

Open42.5

▼ 1

Close41.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BUF -8.5 · closed BUF -9.5 · moved 1 toward BUFmodel BUF -10

model BUF -10

Openline modelKickoff

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBUF -8.5

CloseBUF -9.5

Total42.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BUF as a 9.5-point home favorite against TEN, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: BUF won 34–10; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 44 points went over 41.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 83%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 53%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7 against an average line of 9.1; 39 points a game (usually 46.9). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	SF vs NE 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar situation & spread	-10.5	30–13	W	O41.5
Close	SEA vs NYG 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & season form	-7.5	20–29	L	O41.5
Close	SF vs ARI 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	23–24	L	U48.5
Loose	BUF vs PIT 2023 · Postseason · loose · similar team ratings & season form	-10	31–17	W	O39.5
Loose	BUF vs NYJ 2023 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest & season form	-8.5	32–6	W	U39
Loose	BUF vs TB 2023 · Week 8 · loose · similar situation & team ratings	-10	24–18	L	U43
Loose	NYJ vs DEN 2024 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation & spread	-8.5	9–10	L	U39.5
Loose	NE vs CHI 2022 · Week 7 · loose · similar season form & situation	-8.5	14–33	L	O40
Loose	SF vs NO 2022 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest & season form	-9	13–0	W	U43.5
Loose	PHI vs NYG 2021 · Week 16 · loose · similar rest & season form	-10.5	34–10	W	O40.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TEN LLLWL	1-4	20%	1-1	1-2
BUF WWLLW	3-3	50%	1-1	2-1

Venue/role: TEN away, as underdog; BUF home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TEN UUOOU	2-3	40%	1-4
BUF UOUUO	3-3	50%	4-2

Went over in Q4. Of 75 earlier overs in games with totals 38.5–44.5, 24% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TEN	3-7 30%	3-6-1 33%	4-6 40%
BUF	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

TEN 8–6 BUF TEN leads · 14 games since 1999 · BUF has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TEN−1.5 →−1.8▼ 0.3#25

BUF+2.3 →+2.4▲ 0.1#7

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

TEN

Longer bar = better

BUF

#28

Offense

BUF better ▶

#10

Defense

◀ TEN better

#14

−1.4 #31

Turnovers

BUF better ▶

+1.3 #3

58 plays #27

Pace

◀ TEN faster

57 plays #32

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TEN has the ball

Advantage: BUF defense

	TEN off	BUF def	Edge
Points / game	19.2 #22	21.0 #11	BUF
Yards / play	4.35 #30	5.50 #21	BUF
EPA / play	−0.17 #28	−0.03 #14	BUF
Success rate	38% #30	41% #8	BUF

When BUF has the ball

Even matchup

	BUF off	TEN def	Edge
Points / game	27.5 #6	22.0 #13	BUF
Yards / play	5.48 #16	4.32 #1	TEN
EPA / play	+0.17 #3	−0.12 #6	Even
Success rate	45% #14	36% #1	TEN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

TEN scoring against the BUF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TEN scored	5.6 #12	5.0 #25	10.6 #18	6.2 #8	2.4 #31	8.6 #25
BUF allowed	7.5 #30	6.7 #17	14.2 #26	3.3 #7	3.5 #4	6.8 #4

BUF scoring against the TEN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BUF scored	5.5 #13	10.2 #3	15.7 #6	7.5 #2	4.3 #24	11.8 #13
TEN allowed	4.8 #18	3.8 #4	8.6 #7	5.4 #21	8.0 #27	13.4 #27

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.