Titans @ Lions: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2024)

Sun, Oct 27, 2024, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Detroit Lions

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Tennessee Titans

1-5 · Power #26

final

Final

Detroit Lions

5-1 · Power #3

▲ winner

Closing spread

DET -12.5

✓ DET W

Total

46.5

▲ Over · 66 pts

Model before kickoff

TEN 17–30 DET

✓ DET (87%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenDET -12.5

CloseDET -12.5

Total45.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenDET -12.5

no move

CloseDET -12.5

No change since the open

Total

Open45.5

▲ 1

Close46.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened DET -12.5 · unchangedmodel DET -10.5

model DET -10.5

Openline modelKickoff

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenDET -12.5

CloseDET -12.5

Total45.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like DET as a 12.5-point home favorite against TEN, the favorite won 9, covered 7, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: DET won 52–14; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 66 points went over 46.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 81%

Favorite covered

7 of 978%

Normal range · usually 54%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 53%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 21.6 against an average line of 11.9; 51.6 points a game (usually 45.8). Of the 4 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	TB vs CHI 2021 · Week 7 · loose · similar situation & team ratings	-12	38–3	W	U47
Loose	SF vs NE 2024 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation	-10.5	30–13	W	O41.5
Loose	KC vs DEN 2022 · Week 17 · loose · similar rest & season form	-13	27–24	L	O46
Loose	MIA vs TEN 2023 · Week 14 · loose · similar rest & season form	-13.5	27–28	L	O44.5
Loose	DAL vs WSH 2023 · Week 12 · loose · similar season form & situation	-13	45–10	W	O48
Loose	BUF vs TEN 2024 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & season form	-9.5	34–10	W	O41.5
Loose	KC vs PIT 2021 · Postseason · loose · similar rest & season form	-12	42–21	W	O46
Loose	DAL vs IND 2022 · Week 13 · loose · similar season form & situation	-11	54–19	W	O44.5
Loose	WSH vs CAR 2024 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & situation	-10.5	40–7	W	U50.5
Loose	BUF vs ATL 2021 · Week 17 · loose · similar rest & season form	-14	29–15	P	U46

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TEN LLWLL	1-5	17%	1-2	1-3
DET LWWWW	5-1	83%	2-1	4-1

Venue/role: TEN away, as underdog; DET home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TEN UOOUO	3-3	50%	1-5
DET UUOOO	3-3	50%	5-1

Went over in Q2. Of 69 earlier overs in games with totals 43.5–49.5, 25% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TEN	2-8 20%	2-7-1 22%	4-6 40%
DET	8-2 80%	8-2 80%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

TEN 6–1 DET TEN leads · 7 games since 2001 · DET has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TEN−1.5 →−2.4▼ 0.9#26

DET+1.6 →+4.0▲ 2.4#3

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

TEN

Longer bar = better

DET

#29

Offense

DET better ▶

Defense

◀ TEN better

#12

−1.5 #31

Turnovers

DET better ▶

+1.0 #3

60 plays #22

Pace

DET faster ▶

64 plays #9

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TEN has the ball

Advantage: DET defense

	TEN off	DET def	Edge
Points / game	17.7 #26	20.0 #9	DET
Yards / play	4.34 #31	5.50 #21	DET
EPA / play	−0.18 #29	−0.11 #5	DET
Success rate	38% #31	41% #12	DET

When DET has the ball

Even matchup

	DET off	TEN def	Edge
Points / game	30.3 #3	24.0 #21	DET
Yards / play	6.43 #2	4.77 #2	Even
EPA / play	+0.15 #4	−0.07 #9	DET
Success rate	49% #5	37% #1	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

TEN scoring against the DET defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TEN scored	5.2 #12	5.3 #27	10.5 #20	5.2 #14	2.0 #32	7.2 #27
DET allowed	4.8 #20	3.3 #1	8.2 #3	6.2 #25	5.7 #18	11.8 #21

DET scoring against the TEN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DET scored	4.0 #20	13.5 #1	17.5 #1	8.0 #1	3.8 #25	11.8 #14
TEN allowed	4.0 #12	4.3 #5	8.3 #5	6.2 #25	9.5 #30	15.7 #31

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.