Ravens @ Browns: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2024)

Sun, Oct 27, 2024, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Cleveland Browns · Division game

Weather at kickoff53°F3 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

Baltimore Ravens

5-2 · Power #1

final

Final

Cleveland Browns

1-6 · Power #28

▲ winner

Closing spread

BAL -7.5

✓ CLE W

Total

44.5

▲ Over · 53 pts

Model before kickoff

BAL 27–20 CLE

✗ BAL (76%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBAL -9.5

CloseBAL -7.5

Total42.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBAL -9.5

2 → CLE

CloseBAL -7.5

2 pts toward Cleveland Browns

Total

Open42.5

▲ 2

Close44.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BAL -9.5 · closed BAL -7.5 · moved 2 toward CLEmodel BAL -9

model BAL -9

Openline modelKickoff

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBAL -9.5

CloseBAL -7.5

Total42.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BAL as a 7.5-point road favorite at CLE, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: CLE won 29–24 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 53 points went over 44.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 68%

Favorite covered

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 43%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 11.5 against an average line of 7.4; 48.5 points a game (usually 46.5). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	PHI @ WSH 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & rest	-7	38–31	P	O42.5
Close	HOU @ NE 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-6.5	41–21	W	O39.5
Loose	KC @ DEN 2022 · Week 14 · loose · similar rest & season form	-8.5	34–28	L	O44
Loose	KC @ DEN 2023 · Week 8 · loose · similar situation & rest	-7	9–24	L	U45.5
Loose	MIA @ NYJ 2023 · Week 12 · loose · similar team ratings & season form	-8.5	34–13	W	O40
Loose	TB @ PIT 2022 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & season form	-6.5	18–20	L	U46.5
Loose	PHI @ IND 2022 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest & season form	-7.5	17–16	L	U45.5
Loose	PHI @ NYG 2022 · Week 14 · loose · similar rest & situation	-7.5	48–22	W	O44
Loose	SF @ JAX 2021 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest & season form	-7	30–10	W	U45.5
Loose	IND @ HOU 2021 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest & season form	-7.5	31–0	W	U45

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BAL WWWLW	4-3	57%	3-1	4-2
CLE LLLWL	2-5	29%	0-3	2-2

Venue/role: BAL away, as favorite; CLE home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BAL OUOOO	6-1	86%	5-2
CLE UUOUU	2-5	29%	1-6

Went over in Q4. Of 79 earlier overs in games with totals 41.5–47.5, 20% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BAL	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	6-3-1 67%
CLE	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

BAL 39–16 CLE BAL leads · 55 games since 1999 · CLE has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 12 2023	Cleveland Browns 33 @ Baltimore Ravens 31	BAL -6	CLE W
Oct 1 2023	Baltimore Ravens 28 @ Cleveland Browns 3	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BAL+3.1 →+5.3▲ 2.2#1

CLE+1.1 →−2.8▼ 3.9#28

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

BAL

Longer bar = better

CLE

Offense

◀ BAL better

#30

#23

Defense

CLE better ▶

#14

+0.1 #16

Turnovers

◀ BAL better

−0.4 #22

64 plays #10

Pace

Even

63 plays #11

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BAL has the ball

Advantage: BAL offense

	BAL off	CLE def	Edge
Points / game	31.1 #2	23.1 #18	BAL
Yards / play	7.23 #1	5.31 #15	BAL
EPA / play	+0.23 #2	−0.02 #16	BAL
Success rate	51% #2	40% #7	BAL

When CLE has the ball

Advantage: BAL defense

	CLE off	BAL def	Edge
Points / game	15.6 #29	25.7 #27	Even
Yards / play	4.00 #32	5.71 #23	BAL
EPA / play	−0.18 #28	+0.06 #26	Even
Success rate	35% #32	42% #15	BAL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

BAL scoring against the CLE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BAL scored	5.9 #7	9.7 #4	15.6 #6	7.9 #2	7.3 #7	15.1 #1
CLE allowed	4.0 #12	9.6 #27	13.6 #25	7.7 #32	1.9 #1	9.6 #11

CLE scoring against the BAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CLE scored	3.9 #21	3.6 #29	7.4 #31	1.9 #32	6.3 #14	8.1 #25
BAL allowed	3.7 #8	5.6 #11	9.3 #7	4.4 #13	12.0 #32	16.4 #32

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.