Broncos @ Ravens: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2024)

Sun, Nov 3, 2024, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 9 · at Baltimore Ravens

Weather at kickoff57°F3 mphgusts 10DryWeather watch ›

Denver Broncos

5-3 · Power #15

final

Final

Baltimore Ravens

5-3 · Power #1

▲ winner

Closing spread

BAL -8.5

✓ BAL W

Total

46.5

▲ Over · 51 pts

Model before kickoff

DEN 20–28 BAL

✓ BAL (78%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBAL -9

CloseBAL -8.5

Total44.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBAL -9

0.5 → DEN

CloseBAL -8.5

0.5 pts toward Denver Broncos

Total

Open44.5

▲ 2

Close46.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BAL -9 · closed BAL -8.5 · moved 0.5 toward DENmodel BAL -7.5

model BAL -7.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 6.5–10.5 since 2023: won 72%, covered 47% (57 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBAL -9

CloseBAL -8.5

Total44.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BAL as an 8.5-point home favorite against DEN, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: BAL won 41–10; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 51 points went over 46.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 76%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 45%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 53%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.1 against an average line of 7.9; 42.1 points a game (usually 46.9). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	BAL vs WSH 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & season form	-7.5	30–23	L	O50.5
Close	DET vs TB 2024 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	16–20	L	U51.5
Close	HOU vs CHI 2024 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & situation	-6.5	19–13	L	U45.5
Loose	SF vs ARI 2024 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & situation	-7.5	23–24	L	U48.5
Loose	LAC vs NO 2024 · Week 8 · loose · similar situation & spread	-7.5	26–8	W	U41.5
Loose	LAC vs DEN 2021 · Week 17 · loose · similar rest	-8	34–13	W	O45.5
Loose	NYJ vs DEN 2024 · Week 4 · loose · similar season form & situation	-8.5	9–10	L	U39.5
Loose	BUF vs NE 2022 · Week 18 · loose · similar rest & situation	-8	35–23	W	O44
Loose	DET vs GB 2023 · Week 12 · loose	-8.5	22–29	L	O47
Loose	KC vs JAX 2022 · Week 10 · loose · similar rest & situation	-9.5	27–17	W	U51

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DEN WWLWW	6-1	86%	4-0	3-1
BAL WWLWL	4-4	50%	1-2	4-3

Venue/role: DEN away, as underdog; BAL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
DEN UOOOO	5-2	71%	5-3
BAL UOOOO	7-1	88%	5-3

Went over in Q3. Of 76 earlier overs in games with totals 43.5–49.5, 25% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DEN	6-4 60%	7-2 78%	6-3 67%
BAL	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	7-2-1 78%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

DEN 5–11 BAL BAL leads · 16 games since 2000 · BAL has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

DEN−1.0 →+0.6▲ 1.6#14

BAL+3.1 →+4.7▲ 1.6#1

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

DEN

Longer bar = better

BAL

#21

Offense

BAL better ▶

Defense

◀ DEN better

#23

0.0 #17

Turnovers

BAL better ▶

+0.3 #12

61 plays #21

Pace

BAL faster ▶

64 plays #10

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When DEN has the ball

Even matchup

	DEN off	BAL def	Edge
Points / game	21.6 #20	26.1 #26	DEN
Yards / play	5.02 #24	5.76 #25	Even
EPA / play	−0.07 #23	+0.07 #26	Even
Success rate	42% #18	43% #16	Even

When BAL has the ball

Even matchup

	BAL off	DEN def	Edge
Points / game	30.3 #2	15.0 #3	Even
Yards / play	7.11 #1	4.43 #1	Even
EPA / play	+0.21 #2	−0.18 #1	Even
Success rate	51% #2	38% #3	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

DEN scoring against the BAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DEN scored	2.5 #28	7.9 #13	10.4 #19	3.9 #19	7.4 #8	11.3 #16
BAL allowed	3.6 #7	5.3 #10	8.9 #6	5.6 #21	11.6 #32	17.3 #32

BAL scoring against the DEN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BAL scored	5.1 #13	9.8 #5	14.9 #6	7.8 #3	7.3 #9	15.0 #3
DEN allowed	4.6 #16	4.4 #5	9.0 #7	2.0 #3	4.0 #4	6.0 #2

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.