Patriots @ Titans: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2024)

Sun, Nov 3, 2024, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 9 · at Tennessee Titans

Weather at kickoff78°F14 mphgusts 28DryWindy Over 46% of 93 games since 2023Weather watch ›

New England Patriots

2-6 · Power #30

final

Final

Tennessee Titans

1-6 · Power #26

▲ winner

Closing spread

TEN -3.5

✓ NE W

Total

38.5

▼ Under · 37 pts

Model before kickoff

NE 17–20 TEN

✓ TEN (62%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTEN -3.5

CloseTEN -3.5

Total38.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTEN -3.5

no move

CloseTEN -3.5

No change since the open

Total

Open38.5

no move

Close38.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TEN -3.5 · unchangedmodel TEN -2.5

model TEN -2.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 68%, covered 54% (104 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTEN -3.5

CloseTEN -3.5

Total38.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TEN as a 3.5-point home favorite against NE, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: TEN won 20–17; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 37 points stayed under 38.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 44%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.1 against an average line of 3.4; 40.5 points a game (usually 43.8). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	CHI vs LAR 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	24–18	W	O40.5
Close	MIA vs TEN 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & total	-2.5	12–31	L	O37.5
Close	TEN vs CAR 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-3.5	17–10	W	U36
Loose	IND vs CHI 2024 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest	-2.5	21–16	W	U43.5
Loose	CLE vs NYG 2024 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & total	-6.5	15–21	L	U37.5
Loose	IND vs HOU 2022 · Week 18 · loose · similar rest & season form	-3	31–32	L	O37.5
Loose	LV vs NYG 2023 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-3	30–6	W	U38.5
Loose	NE vs WSH 2023 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest & situation	-2.5	17–20	L	U40
Loose	JAX vs CAR 2023 · Week 17 · loose · similar rest	-3.5	26–0	W	U38
Loose	NYJ vs WSH 2023 · Week 16 · loose · similar rest & season form	-3	30–28	L	O36

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NE LLLLW	3-5	38%	1-2	3-5
TEN LWLLL	1-6	14%	0-3	0-2

Venue/role: NE away, as underdog; TEN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NE OUOOO	5-3	63%	2-6
TEN OOUOO	4-3	57%	1-6

Stayed under: it needed 19 in the 4th quarter and got 17. 55% of games with totals 35.5–41.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NE	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
TEN	2-8 20%	2-7-1 22%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

NE 9–4 TEN NE leads · 13 games since 2002 · NE has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NE−1.8 →−5.2▼ 3.4#31

TEN−1.5 →−2.9▼ 1.4#28

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

Longer bar = better

TEN

#29

Offense

Even

#30

#24

Defense

TEN better ▶

#12

−0.1 #19

Turnovers

◀ NE better

−1.9 #32

59 plays #25

Pace

TEN faster ▶

61 plays #20

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NE has the ball

Advantage: TEN defense

	NE off	TEN def	Edge
Points / game	15.5 #30	28.0 #30	Even
Yards / play	4.40 #31	4.78 #3	TEN
EPA / play	−0.13 #27	−0.06 #11	TEN
Success rate	39% #29	38% #2	TEN

When TEN has the ball

Advantage: NE defense

	TEN off	NE def	Edge
Points / game	17.1 #28	24.6 #21	NE
Yards / play	4.59 #30	5.74 #24	NE
EPA / play	−0.20 #31	+0.08 #27	Even
Success rate	38% #30	46% #23	NE

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

NE scoring against the TEN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NE scored	3.5 #23	4.0 #28	7.5 #30	3.4 #24	4.6 #25	8.0 #26
TEN allowed	5.4 #25	6.7 #18	12.1 #19	7.7 #31	8.1 #27	15.9 #31

TEN scoring against the NE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TEN scored	5.4 #6	5.6 #23	11.0 #17	4.4 #15	1.7 #32	6.1 #32
NE allowed	5.4 #24	7.5 #20	12.9 #24	5.8 #22	5.6 #16	11.4 #17

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.