Titans @ Chargers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2024)

Sun, Nov 10, 2024, 4:05 PM ESTWeek 10 · at Los Angeles Chargers

Weather at kickoff76°F8 mphgusts 14DryWeather watch ›

Tennessee Titans

2-6 · Power #26

final

Final

Los Angeles Chargers

5-3 · Power #13

▲ winner

Closing spread

LAC -8.5

✓ LAC W

Total

40.5

▲ Over · 44 pts

Model before kickoff

TEN 16–24 LAC

✓ LAC (78%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLAC -8

CloseLAC -8.5

Total38.5 → 40.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenLAC -8

0.5 → LAC

CloseLAC -8.5

0.5 pts toward Los Angeles Chargers

Total

Open38.5

▲ 2

Close40.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened LAC -8 · closed LAC -8.5 · moved 0.5 toward LACmodel LAC -7

model LAC -7

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 6.5–10.5 since 2023: won 73%, covered 45% (64 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLAC -8

CloseLAC -8.5

Total38.5 → 40.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LAC as an 8.5-point home favorite against TEN, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: LAC won 27–17; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 44 points went over 40.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 76%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 45%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 54%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3 against an average line of 8; 41.8 points a game (usually 47.1). Of the 6 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	LAC vs NO 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & situation	-7.5	26–8	W	U41.5
Close	PIT vs NYG 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar team ratings & rest	-6.5	26–18	W	O37.5
Close	SEA vs NYG 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & season form	-7.5	20–29	L	O41.5
Close	BUF vs TEN 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & situation	-9.5	34–10	W	O41.5
Close	SF vs NE 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar total	-10.5	30–13	W	O41.5
Close	KC vs TB 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & rest	-8.5	30–24	L	O45.5
Close	PHI vs JAX 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & season form	-7.5	28–23	L	O46.5
Close	NE vs CHI 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar team ratings & situation	-8.5	14–33	L	O40
Loose	TB vs DEN 2024 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & total	-5.5	7–26	L	U40.5
Loose	NYJ vs DEN 2024 · Week 4 · loose · similar spread & total	-8.5	9–10	L	U39.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TEN WLLLL	1-7	13%	1-3	1-4
LAC WWLWW	6-2	75%	3-0	5-1

Venue/role: TEN away, as underdog; LAC home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TEN OUOOU	4-4	50%	2-6
LAC UOUUU	1-7	13%	5-3

Went over in Q4. Of 80 earlier overs in games with totals 37.5–43.5, 23% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TEN	3-7 30%	2-8 20%	5-5 50%
LAC	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	1-9 10%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

TEN 3–12 LAC LAC leads · 15 games since 2004 · LAC has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 17 2023	Los Angeles Chargers 24 @ Tennessee Titans 27	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TEN−1.5 →−2.9▼ 1.4#27

LAC−0.7 →+1.6▲ 2.3#10

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

TEN

Longer bar = better

LAC

#29

Offense

LAC better ▶

#22

#11

Defense

LAC better ▶

−1.4 #31

Turnovers

LAC better ▶

+1.1 #4

63 plays #15

Pace

◀ TEN faster

60 plays #26

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TEN has the ball

Advantage: LAC defense

	TEN off	LAC def	Edge
Points / game	17.5 #27	12.6 #1	LAC
Yards / play	4.72 #28	5.06 #6	LAC
EPA / play	−0.17 #31	−0.16 #1	LAC
Success rate	39% #29	39% #5	LAC

When LAC has the ball

Advantage: TEN defense

	LAC off	TEN def	Edge
Points / game	19.9 #24	26.6 #27	Even
Yards / play	5.29 #16	4.74 #3	TEN
EPA / play	−0.01 #16	−0.06 #9	TEN
Success rate	38% #30	39% #3	TEN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

TEN scoring against the LAC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TEN scored	5.6 #4	4.9 #26	10.5 #19	4.3 #18	2.4 #32	6.6 #32
LAC allowed	1.1 #1	3.4 #1	4.5 #1	1.5 #2	6.6 #22	8.1 #7

LAC scoring against the TEN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LAC scored	5.4 #9	7.3 #16	12.6 #11	2.4 #32	4.9 #26	7.3 #31
TEN allowed	4.8 #21	6.3 #15	11.0 #15	7.6 #31	8.0 #26	15.6 #30

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.