Vikings @ Jaguars: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2024)

Sun, Nov 10, 2024, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 10 · at Jacksonville Jaguars

Weather at kickoff78°F13 mphgusts 24Wet0.0 mmWet Over 51% of 104 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Minnesota Vikings

6-2 · Power #8

▲ winner

Final

Jacksonville Jaguars

2-7 · Power #29

final

Closing spread

MIN -7.5

✓ JAX W

Total

42.5

▼ Under · 19 pts

Model before kickoff

MIN 26–19 JAX

✓ MIN (74%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIN -5

CloseMIN -7.5

Total46.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMIN -5

2.5 → MIN

CloseMIN -7.5

2.5 pts toward Minnesota Vikings

Total

Open46.5

▼ 4

Close42.5

Down 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MIN -5 · closed MIN -7.5 · moved 2.5 toward MINmodel MIN -4

model MIN -4

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Crossed 7Too few earlier games to rateⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIN -5

CloseMIN -7.5

Total46.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MIN as a 7.5-point road favorite at JAX, the favorite won 8, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: MIN won 12–7; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 19 points stayed under 42.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 69%

Favorite covered

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 43%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 53%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 5.9 against an average line of 6.8; 46.7 points a game (usually 46.7). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	CIN @ CLE 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & situation	-5.5	21–14	W	U42.5
Loose	ATL @ CAR 2024 · Week 6 · loose · similar spread & situation	-6.5	38–20	W	O45.5
Loose	NE @ MIA 2021 · Week 18 · loose · similar rest & season form	-6	24–33	L	O41
Loose	PHI @ IND 2022 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest & season form	-7.5	17–16	L	U45.5
Loose	PHI @ WSH 2023 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest	-7	38–31	P	O42.5
Loose	SF @ CAR 2022 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & season form	-6.5	37–15	W	O39.5
Loose	DAL @ WSH 2022 · Week 18 · loose · similar season form & situation	-7.5	6–26	L	U41
Loose	GB @ BAL 2021 · Week 15 · loose · similar situation & rest	-7	31–30	L	O44.5
Loose	IND @ HOU 2021 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest & season form	-7.5	31–0	W	U45
Loose	LAR @ BAL 2021 · Week 17 · loose · similar rest & situation	-7	20–19	L	U46.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIN WWLLW	6-2	75%	2-1	2-2
JAX LLWWW	5-4	56%	1-2	4-1

Venue/role: MIN away, as favorite; JAX home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIN OUOOU	3-5	38%	6-2
JAX OOOOO	6-3	67%	2-7

Stayed under: it needed 30 in the 4th quarter and got 6. 50% of games with totals 39.5–45.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MIN	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
JAX	2-8 20%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

MIN 6–1 JAX MIN leads · 7 games since 2001 · MIN has won the last 6 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MIN−0.1 →+2.2▲ 2.3#9

JAX+0.2 →−3.2▼ 3.4#28

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

MIN

Longer bar = better

JAX

#12

Offense

◀ MIN better

#16

Defense

◀ MIN better

#28

+0.5 #8

Turnovers

◀ MIN better

−0.8 #29

59 plays #27

Pace

◀ MIN faster

57 plays #32

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MIN has the ball

Advantage: MIN offense

	MIN off	JAX def	Edge
Points / game	26.1 #8	28.0 #30	MIN
Yards / play	5.75 #11	6.02 #32	MIN
EPA / play	0.00 #14	+0.15 #32	MIN
Success rate	45% #13	44% #18	MIN

When JAX has the ball

Advantage: MIN defense

	JAX off	MIN def	Edge
Points / game	21.7 #18	18.8 #7	MIN
Yards / play	5.61 #14	5.17 #8	MIN
EPA / play	0.00 #15	−0.14 #2	MIN
Success rate	42% #16	39% #4	MIN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

MIN scoring against the JAX defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIN scored	9.0 #1	4.8 #27	13.8 #7	6.5 #10	5.9 #19	12.4 #11
JAX allowed	5.3 #25	9.6 #27	14.9 #30	3.7 #8	9.4 #30	13.1 #23

JAX scoring against the MIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JAX scored	2.2 #27	7.1 #17	9.3 #22	6.8 #7	5.6 #20	12.3 #13
MIN allowed	1.3 #2	7.0 #20	8.3 #2	3.4 #7	7.1 #23	10.5 #15

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.