Falcons @ Saints: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2024)

Sun, Nov 10, 2024, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 10 · at New Orleans Saints · Division game

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Atlanta Falcons

6-3 · Power #20

final

Final

New Orleans Saints

2-7 · Power #25

▲ winner

Closing spread

ATL -4.5

✓ NO W

Total

47.5

▼ Under · 37 pts

Model before kickoff

ATL 27–22 NO

✗ ATL (66%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenATL -3

CloseATL -4.5

Total47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenATL -3

1.5 → ATL

CloseATL -4.5

1.5 pts toward Atlanta Falcons

Total

Open47.5

no move

Close47.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ATL -3 · closed ATL -4.5 · moved 1.5 toward ATLmodel ATL -4

model ATL -4

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 2.5–6.5 since 2023: won 66%, covered 54% (79 games)ⓘ

Moved off 3Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 46% (28 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenATL -3

CloseATL -4.5

Total47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ATL as a 4.5-point road favorite at NO, the favorite won 9, covered 8, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: NO won 20–17 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 37 points stayed under 47.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 62%

Favorite covered

8 of 1080%

Above normal · usually 47%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 44%

Covers above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 11.5 against an average line of 4.1; 43.5 points a game (usually 44.1). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	CIN @ NYG 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & spread	-4.5	17–7	W	U45.5
Close	KC @ ATL 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar total & rest	-3.5	22–17	W	U46.5
Close	SF @ SEA 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar season form	-3.5	36–24	W	O48.5
Close	CIN @ CLE 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-5.5	21–14	W	U42.5
Close	LAR @ SEA 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar season form & total	-2	26–20	W	U48.5
Close	BAL @ TB 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest	-4.5	41–31	W	O50.5
Close	PHI @ NYG 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	28–3	W	U42.5
Close	DAL @ NYG 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & season form	-5.5	20–15	L	U44.5
Close	DET @ DAL 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar season form & situation	-3.5	47–9	W	O52.5
Close	PHI @ SEA 2023 · Week 15 · close · similar rest & season form	-5	17–20	L	U46

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ATL WWLWW	5-4	56%	3-0	4-3
NO LLLLL	3-6	33%	1-3	2-4

Venue/role: ATL away, as favorite; NO home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ATL OOUOU	4-5	44%	6-3
NO UOOUO	6-3	67%	2-7

Stayed under: it needed 11 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 53% of games with totals 44.5–50.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ATL	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
NO	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

ATL 23–32 NO NO leads · 55 games since 1999 · ATL has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 29 2024	New Orleans Saints 24 @ Atlanta Falcons 26	ATL -2.5	NO W
Jan 7 2023	Atlanta Falcons 17 @ New Orleans Saints 48	NO -3	NO W
Nov 26 2023	New Orleans Saints 15 @ Atlanta Falcons 24	NO -2	ATL W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ATL−0.8 →−0.2▲ 0.6#16

NO+0.5 →−1.6▼ 2.1#25

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

ATL

Longer bar = better

Offense

◀ ATL better

#18

#22

Defense

Even

#23

−0.1 #16

Turnovers

NO better ▶

+0.3 #12

61 plays #20

Pace

NO faster ▶

63 plays #13

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ATL has the ball

Advantage: ATL offense

	ATL off	NO def	Edge
Points / game	24.6 #12	25.4 #25	ATL
Yards / play	5.96 #7	5.99 #31	ATL
EPA / play	+0.07 #10	0.00 #17	ATL
Success rate	48% #6	44% #19	ATL

When NO has the ball

Even matchup

	NO off	ATL def	Edge
Points / game	23.0 #15	24.0 #20	NO
Yards / play	5.25 #17	5.35 #15	Even
EPA / play	−0.05 #21	+0.05 #23	Even
Success rate	41% #20	47% #29	NO

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

ATL scoring against the NO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ATL scored	5.0 #12	9.6 #5	14.6 #6	4.7 #14	4.7 #29	9.3 #24
NO allowed	4.1 #13	8.2 #24	12.3 #22	4.9 #11	8.2 #27	13.1 #23

NO scoring against the ATL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NO scored	5.4 #7	9.8 #4	15.2 #4	2.4 #31	5.3 #23	7.8 #29
ATL allowed	4.4 #15	9.8 #28	14.2 #28	4.1 #9	5.7 #17	9.8 #8

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.