Bengals @ Giants: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2024)

Sun, Oct 13, 2024, 8:20 PM EDTWeek 6 · at New York Giants

Weather at kickoff67°F5 mphgusts 10DryWeather watch ›

Cincinnati Bengals

1-4 · Power #14

▲ winner

Final

New York Giants

2-3 · Power #31

final

Closing spread

CIN -4.5

✓ CIN W

Total

45.5

▼ Under · 24 pts

Model before kickoff

CIN 26–22 NYG

✓ CIN (65%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCIN -3.5

CloseCIN -4.5

Total48.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCIN -3.5

1 → CIN

CloseCIN -4.5

1 pt toward Cincinnati Bengals

Total

Open48.5

▼ 3

Close45.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened CIN -3.5 · closed CIN -4.5 · moved 1 toward CINmodel CIN -0.5

model CIN -0.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 2.5–6.5 since 2023: won 63%, covered 51% (68 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCIN -3.5

CloseCIN -4.5

Total48.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CIN as a 4.5-point road favorite at NYG, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: CIN won 17–7; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 24 points stayed under 45.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 44%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.2 against an average line of 3.8; 48.2 points a game (usually 44). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	KC @ ATL 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	22–17	W	U46.5
Close	NYJ @ TEN 2024 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	24–17	W	U42.5
Close	MIA @ CHI 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & season form	-4	35–32	L	O46
Loose	BAL @ NYG 2022 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & situation	-5.5	20–24	L	U45.5
Loose	GB @ CHI 2022 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest & season form	-4	28–19	W	O45.5
Loose	BAL @ PIT 2021 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest & season form	-4	19–20	L	U44
Loose	LAC @ IND 2022 · Week 16 · loose · similar rest & season form	-4.5	20–3	W	U44.5
Loose	BAL @ CIN 2024 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & total	-2.5	41–38	W	O47.5
Loose	LAC @ GB 2023 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-3	20–23	L	U44
Loose	DET @ CAR 2022 · Week 16 · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-3	23–37	L	O43.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CIN LWLWL	2-3	40%	2-0	1-2
NYG LLWWW	3-2	60%	1-1	3-1

Venue/role: CIN away, as favorite; NYG home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CIN UOOOO	4-1	80%	1-4
NYG UUUUO	1-4	20%	2-3

Stayed under: it needed 29 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 49% of games with totals 42.5–48.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CIN	4-6 40%	4-5-1 44%	8-2 80%
NYG	4-6 40%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

CIN 3–3 NYG Series tied · 6 games since 2004 · CIN has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CIN−0.2 →−0.6▼ 0.4#21

NYG−2.2 →−1.8▲ 0.4#27

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

CIN

Longer bar = better

NYG

Offense

◀ CIN better

#23

#28

Defense

NYG better ▶

#17

0.0 #14

Turnovers

◀ CIN better

−0.4 #24

59 plays #25

Pace

NYG faster ▶

65 plays #7

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CIN has the ball

Advantage: CIN offense

	CIN off	NYG def	Edge
Points / game	28.0 #6	20.8 #10	Even
Yards / play	6.06 #8	5.41 #16	CIN
EPA / play	+0.15 #4	0.00 #17	CIN
Success rate	48% #7	46% #25	CIN

When NYG has the ball

Even matchup

	NYG off	CIN def	Edge
Points / game	17.8 #28	29.0 #30	Even
Yards / play	4.96 #22	5.59 #21	Even
EPA / play	−0.06 #23	+0.14 #29	NYG
Success rate	40% #20	51% #31	NYG

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

CIN scoring against the NYG defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CIN scored	3.4 #22	10.0 #4	13.4 #11	7.4 #3	7.2 #9	14.6 #3
NYG allowed	6.2 #27	4.6 #9	10.8 #13	5.2 #20	4.8 #14	10.0 #13

NYG scoring against the CIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NYG scored	3.8 #20	7.2 #14	11.0 #17	3.2 #24	3.6 #27	6.8 #29
CIN allowed	3.4 #5	10.4 #29	13.8 #24	6.2 #25	8.4 #27	14.6 #29

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.