Lions @ Cowboys: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2024)

Sun, Oct 13, 2024, 4:25 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Dallas Cowboys

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Detroit Lions

3-1 · Power #3

▲ winner

Final

Dallas Cowboys

3-2 · Power #22

final

Closing spread

DET -3.5

✓ DET W

Total

52.5

▲ Over · 56 pts

Model before kickoff

DET 27–24 DAL

✓ DET (61%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenDET -3.5

CloseDET -3.5

Total52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenDET -3.5

no move

CloseDET -3.5

No change since the open

Total

Open52.5

no move

Close52.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened DET -3.5 · unchangedmodel DAL -1.5

model DAL -1.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 67%, covered 56% (55 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenDET -3.5

CloseDET -3.5

Total52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like DET as a 3.5-point road favorite at DAL, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: DET won 47–9; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 56 points went over 52.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 60%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 43%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 1.3 against an average line of 2.8; 52.1 points a game (usually 43.6). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	GB @ LAR 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & spread	-2.5	24–19	W	U49.5
Close	KC @ ATL 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar season form & situation	-3.5	22–17	W	U46.5
Loose	BAL @ DAL 2024 · Week 3 · loose · similar situation	-1.5	28–25	W	O47.5
Loose	KC @ BAL 2021 · Week 2 · loose · similar team ratings & situation	-3.5	35–36	L	O53.5
Loose	MIA @ LAC 2022 · Week 14 · loose · similar season form	-3	17–23	L	U52
Loose	BAL @ CIN 2024 · Week 5 · loose · similar season form & spread	-2.5	41–38	W	O47.5
Loose	LAC @ LV 2021 · Week 18 · loose · similar season form & situation	-3	32–35	L	O49.5
Loose	LAR @ SF 2021 · Week 10 · loose · similar season form	-4	10–31	L	U50
Loose	CIN @ LV 2021 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest & season form	-1.5	32–13	W	U51
Loose	LAR @ SEA 2021 · Week 5 · loose · similar season form & team ratings	-2.5	26–17	W	U54.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DET WLWW	3-1	75%	1-0	3-1
DAL WLLLW	2-3	40%	0-2	2-1

Venue/role: DET away, as favorite; DAL home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
DET UUUO	1-3	25%	3-1
DAL OOOUU	3-2	60%	3-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DET	7-3 70%	8-2 80%	5-5 50%
DAL	5-5 50%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

DET 7–11 DAL DAL leads · 18 games since 2001 · DET has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 30 2023	Detroit Lions 19 @ Dallas Cowboys 20	DAL -4.5	DET W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

DET+1.6 →+2.3▲ 0.7#6

DAL+2.5 →+2.0▼ 0.5#8

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

DET

Longer bar = better

DAL

Offense

◀ DET better

#16

#17

Defense

Even

#19

+0.3 #12

Turnovers

◀ DET better

−0.2 #21

66 plays #5

Pace

◀ DET faster

64 plays #9

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When DET has the ball

Advantage: DET offense

	DET off	DAL def	Edge
Points / game	26.0 #8	24.2 #23	DET
Yards / play	6.06 #7	5.35 #13	DET
EPA / play	+0.10 #6	+0.09 #26	DET
Success rate	51% #3	43% #15	DET

When DAL has the ball

Even matchup

	DAL off	DET def	Edge
Points / game	23.4 #15	20.5 #10	DET
Yards / play	5.49 #17	5.54 #20	Even
EPA / play	+0.01 #15	−0.03 #15	Even
Success rate	42% #17	45% #23	DAL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

DET scoring against the DAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DET scored	4.3 #19	10.0 #3	14.3 #9	7.8 #2	2.5 #30	10.3 #21
DAL allowed	7.4 #30	6.8 #19	14.2 #27	6.0 #24	4.0 #7	10.0 #13

DAL scoring against the DET defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DAL scored	4.6 #16	7.8 #13	12.4 #15	3.2 #23	7.8 #5	11.0 #15
DET allowed	4.0 #11	4.3 #7	8.3 #5	6.8 #29	5.5 #16	12.3 #21

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.