Colts @ Titans: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2024)

Sun, Oct 13, 2024, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Tennessee Titans · Division game

Weather at kickoff81°F10 mphgusts 19DryWeather watch ›

Indianapolis Colts

2-3 · Power #21

▲ winner

Final

Tennessee Titans

1-3 · Power #26

final

Closing spread

TEN -2.5

✓ IND W

Total

41.5

▼ Under · 37 pts

Model before kickoff

IND 22–24 TEN

✗ TEN (58%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTEN -0.5

CloseTEN -2.5

Total42.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTEN -0.5

2 → TEN

CloseTEN -2.5

2 pts toward Tennessee Titans

Total

Open42.5

▼ 1

Close41.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TEN -0.5 · closed TEN -2.5 · moved 2 toward TENmodel IND -0.5

model IND -0.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 70%, covered 57% (93 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTEN -0.5

CloseTEN -2.5

Total42.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TEN as a 2.5-point home favorite against IND, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: IND won 20–17 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 37 points stayed under 41.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 44%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.3 against an average line of 2.7; 47.9 points a game (usually 43.8). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	IND vs CHI 2024 · Week 3 · very close · similar spread & season form	-2.5	21–16	W	U43.5
Close	TEN vs GB 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar season form & situation	-2.5	14–30	L	O36.5
Close	JAX vs IND 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar situation	-3.5	37–34	L	O44.5
Close	ATL vs TB 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar season form & team ratings	-2.5	36–30	W	O43.5
Close	CHI vs LAR 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & total	-3.5	24–18	W	O40.5
Loose	ARI vs LAR 2024 · Week 2 · loose · similar season form	-1.5	41–10	W	O47.5
Loose	PIT vs CLE 2022 · Week 18 · loose · similar season form & situation	-2.5	28–14	W	O39.5
Loose	TEN vs IND 2022 · Week 7 · loose · similar situation & rest	-3	19–10	W	U43
Loose	ATL vs IND 2023 · Week 16 · loose · similar season form & team ratings	-2.5	29–10	W	U44
Loose	TEN vs JAX 2022 · Week 14 · loose · similar season form & situation	-3	22–36	L	O41.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
IND WLWWW	4-1	80%	1-1	3-0
TEN LLLW	1-3	25%	0-2	0-1

Venue/role: IND away, as underdog; TEN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
IND OUUOO	3-2	60%	2-3
TEN UUOO	2-2	50%	1-3

Stayed under: it needed 15 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 48% of games with totals 38.5–44.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
IND	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
TEN	3-7 30%	3-6-1 33%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

IND 34–16 TEN IND leads · 50 games since 1999 · TEN has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 3 2023	Indianapolis Colts 31 @ Tennessee Titans 28	IND -1	IND W
Oct 8 2023	Tennessee Titans 16 @ Indianapolis Colts 23	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

IND−0.6 →−1.2▼ 0.6#23

TEN−1.5 →−1.7▼ 0.2#26

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

IND

Longer bar = better

TEN

#12

Offense

◀ IND better

#28

#21

Defense

TEN better ▶

+0.2 #13

Turnovers

◀ IND better

−1.8 #32

57 plays #30

Pace

TEN faster ▶

59 plays #24

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When IND has the ball

Advantage: TEN defense

	IND off	TEN def	Edge
Points / game	23.8 #13	22.5 #15	Even
Yards / play	6.19 #5	4.39 #3	Even
EPA / play	+0.04 #12	−0.13 #6	TEN
Success rate	41% #19	37% #1	TEN

When TEN has the ball

Advantage: IND defense

	TEN off	IND def	Edge
Points / game	19.8 #20	24.4 #24	Even
Yards / play	4.34 #30	5.95 #29	Even
EPA / play	−0.21 #30	+0.02 #19	IND
Success rate	38% #30	41% #13	IND

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

IND scoring against the TEN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IND scored	5.6 #11	2.6 #30	8.2 #24	3.2 #22	12.4 #1	15.6 #1
TEN allowed	4.3 #16	4.0 #4	8.3 #5	6.8 #27	7.5 #25	14.3 #27

TEN scoring against the IND defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TEN scored	5.3 #13	5.5 #19	10.8 #18	6.0 #8	3.0 #29	9.0 #23
IND allowed	3.2 #5	4.4 #8	7.6 #4	4.6 #11	12.2 #32	16.8 #32

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.