Chargers @ Broncos: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2024)

Sun, Oct 13, 2024, 4:05 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Denver Broncos · Division game

Weather at kickoff67°F8 mphgusts 17DryWeather watch ›

Los Angeles Chargers

2-2 · Power #13

▲ winner

Final

Denver Broncos

3-2 · Power #15

final

Closing spread

LAC -2.5

✓ LAC W

Total

37.5

▲ Over · 39 pts

Model before kickoff

LAC 21–19 DEN

✓ LAC (58%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLAC -2.5

CloseLAC -2.5

Total36.5 → 37.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenLAC -2.5

no move

CloseLAC -2.5

No change since the open

Total

Open36.5

▲ 1

Close37.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened LAC -2.5 · unchangedmodel LAC -1

model LAC -1

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 62%, covered 51% (58 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLAC -2.5

CloseLAC -2.5

Total36.5 → 37.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 7 games most like LAC as a 2.5-point road favorite at DEN, the favorite won 4, covered 3, and 3 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: LAC won 23–16; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 7 similar games. 39 points went over 37.5, as in 3 of 7.

Favorite won

4 of 667%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

3 of 743%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

3 of 743%

Normal range · usually 44%

Only 7 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 3.6 against an average line of 2.6; 39.9 points a game (usually 43.8). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 7 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	PIT @ IND 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar spread	-2.5	24–27	L	O40.5
Loose	SEA @ NE 2024 · Week 2 · loose · similar spread & season form	-3.5	23–20	L	O39.5
Loose	NE @ NYJ 2022 · Week 8 · loose · similar situation & team ratings	-1.5	22–17	W	U40
Loose	NO @ MIN 2023 · Week 10 · loose	-3	19–27	L	O41
Loose	JAX @ PIT 2023 · Week 8 · loose · similar situation	-2.5	20–10	W	U41
Loose	NE @ CAR 2021 · Week 9 · loose · similar situation & team ratings	-3.5	24–6	W	U42
Loose	WSH @ NYG 2022 · Week 13 · loose · similar situation	-1.5	20–20	L	U40.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LAC WWLW	3-1	75%	1-1	2-0
DEN W–WWW	4-0	100%	1-0	3-0

Venue/role: LAC away, as favorite; DEN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LAC UUUU	0-4	0%	2-2
DEN O–UUO	2-2	50%	3-2

Went over in Q4. Of 43 earlier overs in games with totals 34.5–40.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LAC	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	2-8 20%
DEN	5-5 50%	6-3 67%	5-4 56%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

LAC 23–33 DEN DEN leads · 56 games since 1999 · DEN has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 31 2023	Los Angeles Chargers 9 @ Denver Broncos 16	DEN -3.5	DEN W
Dec 10 2023	Denver Broncos 24 @ Los Angeles Chargers 7	LAC -3	DEN W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LAC−0.7 →0.0▲ 0.7#16

DEN−1.0 →−0.1▲ 0.9#17

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

LAC

Longer bar = better

DEN

#26

Offense

Even

#26

Defense

Even

+1.3 #3

Turnovers

◀ LAC better

+0.2 #15

54 plays #32

Pace

DEN faster ▶

61 plays #18

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LAC has the ball

Advantage: DEN defense

	LAC off	DEN def	Edge
Points / game	17.0 #28	14.6 #3	DEN
Yards / play	4.86 #24	4.39 #2	DEN
EPA / play	−0.08 #23	−0.21 #2	DEN
Success rate	39% #28	37% #2	DEN

When DEN has the ball

Advantage: LAC defense

	DEN off	LAC def	Edge
Points / game	19.2 #22	12.5 #1	LAC
Yards / play	4.47 #28	4.96 #6	LAC
EPA / play	−0.14 #26	−0.17 #3	LAC
Success rate	39% #29	38% #5	LAC

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

LAC scoring against the DEN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LAC scored	6.5 #8	5.0 #24	11.5 #16	1.5 #32	4.0 #26	5.5 #32
DEN allowed	4.0 #11	4.4 #9	8.4 #6	2.6 #4	3.6 #4	6.2 #3

DEN scoring against the LAC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DEN scored	3.4 #21	5.8 #19	9.2 #21	2.8 #28	7.2 #8	10.0 #22
LAC allowed	1.8 #2	3.5 #3	5.3 #2	2.3 #3	5.0 #15	7.3 #4

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.