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NFL · 2024

NFL Week 6 games

FinalCurrentUpcomingWeek 6: 1st-half lines & halftime results ›Spread edge and Total edge = our projection vs the market ⓘ · Trend = this season’s results
14 finalFavorites 10-4 ATS2 upsetsO/U 11-3Model Favorite 12-2Week in numbers ›

Week in numbers

Tap a number to filter the games below
Games1414 final · 0 to play
Favorites ATS10-471% covered
Upsets2outright
Over / Under11-379% over
Model Favorite12-286% won
Totals moved 1+ ptTap to filter
Moved up5 all 5 final
Over5 100%Under0 0%
Moved down7 all 7 final
Over4 57%Under3 43%
Did the team the spread moved toward cover? ATS vs the closing line, by how far it moved
Moved towardThis week20242024–2026
Any move
6–555%
99–11446%
229–252–448%
1.5+ pts
2–340%
46–5048%
116–117–250%
3+ pts
1–150%
17–1455%
56–58–149%
5+ pts
1–0100%
6–275%
17–1652%
7+ pts
—
0–10%
2–722%
Covered–didn’t–push; % leaves out pushes and is grey under 10 games; green or red from 10 games. ClickTap a row or count to filter.
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Thursday, Oct 10

1
Final · Division
San Francisco 49ers
2-3 · #9
36
Seattle Seahawks
3-2 · #19
24
Spread
SF -3.5
✓ SF W ATS
Total
48.5 ▲2
▲ Over 60 · Q4
Projected
25–22
✓ SF won
Trend: SF ATS ✓Trend: Over ✓ Model: SF by 1 ✓ Model: Under 1 ✗ Cover settled: Q2

Sunday, Oct 13

12
Final · Neutral
Jacksonville Jaguars
1-4 · #29
16
Chicago Bears
3-2 · #24
35
Spread
JAX -1.5
✓ CHI W ATS
Total
44.5 ▲1
▲ Over 51 · Q4
Projected
24–22
✗ JAX lost
Model: CHI by 3 ✓ Model: Over 1.5 ✓ Cover settled: Q2
Final · Non-conf
Arizona Cardinals
2-3 · #17
13
Green Bay Packers
3-2 · #5
34
Spread
GB -6.5
✓ GB W ATS
Total
46.5 ▼3
▲ Over 47 · Q4
Projected
21–27
✓ GB won
Trend: GB ATS ✓Trend: Under ✗ Model: ARI by 4 ✗ Model: Over 1.5 ✓ Cover settled: Q1
Final · Division
Indianapolis Colts
2-3 · #21
20
Tennessee Titans
1-3 · #26
17
Spread
TEN -2.5
✓ IND W ATS
Total
41.5 ▼1
▼ Under 37
Projected
22–24
✗ TEN lost
Trend: IND ATS ✓ Model: IND by 3 ✓ Model: Over 4.5 ✗ Cover settled: Q4
Final · Non-conf
Houston Texans
4-1 · #11
41
New England Patriots
1-4 · #30
21
Spread
HOU -6.5
✓ HOU W ATS
Total
39.5 ▲1
▲ Over 62 · Q3
Projected
24–18
✓ HOU won
Trend: NE ATS ✗Trend: Under ✗ Model: NE by 1.5 ✗ Model: Over 2.5 ✓ Cover settled: Q1
Final · Division
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
3-2 · #7
51
New Orleans Saints
2-3 · #25
27
Spread
TB -3.5
✓ TB W ATS
Total
42.5 ▼3
▲ Over 78 · Q2
Projected
24–20
✓ TB won
Trend: TB ATS ✓Trend: Under ✗ Model: NO by 1 ✗ Model: Over 2 ✓ Cover settled: Q3
Final · Non-conf
Cleveland Browns
1-4 · #28
16
Philadelphia Eagles
2-2 · #2
20
Spread
PHI -8.5
✓ CLE W ATS
Total
42.5 ▼1
▼ Under 36
Projected
18–27
✓ PHI won
Model: CLE by 3.5 ✓ Model: Over 2.5 ✗ Cover settled: Q1
Final · Non-conf
Washington Commanders
4-1 · #10
23
Baltimore Ravens
3-2 · #1
30
Spread
BAL -7.5
✓ WSH W ATS
Total
50.5 ▼1
▲ Over 53 · Q4
Projected
22–29
✓ BAL won
Trend: BAL ATS ✗Trend: Over ✓ Model: WSH by 1 ✓ Model: Over 0.5 ✓ Cover settled: Q4
Final · Division
Los Angeles Chargers
2-2 · #13
23
Denver Broncos
3-2 · #15
16
Spread
LAC -2.5
✓ LAC W ATS
Total
37.5 ▲1
▲ Over 39 · Q4
Projected
21–19
✓ LAC won
Trend: DEN ATS ✗Trend: Under ✗ Model: DEN by 1.5 ✗ Model: Over 2.5 ✓ Cover settled: Q1
Final · Non-conf
Pittsburgh Steelers
3-2 · #12
32
Las Vegas Raiders
2-3 · #27
13
Spread
PIT -3.5
✓ PIT W ATS
Total
36.5
▲ Over 45 · Q4
Projected
23–19
✓ PIT won
Trend: PIT ATS ✓ Model: PIT by 0.5 ✓ Model: Over 6 ✓ Cover settled: Q2
Final · Non-conf
Detroit Lions
3-1 · #3
47
Dallas Cowboys
3-2 · #22
9
Spread
DET -3.5
✓ DET W ATS
Total
52.5
▲ Over 56 · Q4
Projected
27–24
✓ DET won
Trend: DET ATS ✓ Model: DAL by 5 ✗ Model: Under 0.5 ✗ Cover settled: Q1
Final · Division
Atlanta Falcons
3-2 · #20
38
Carolina Panthers
1-4 · #32
20
Spread
ATL -6.5
✓ ATL W ATS
Total
45.5 ▼2
▲ Over 58 · Q3
Projected
26–19
✓ ATL won
Trend: ATL ATS ✓Trend: Under ✗ Model: CAR by 2 ✗ Model: Under 0.5 ✗ Cover settled: Q3
Final · Non-conf
Cincinnati Bengals
1-4 · #14
17
New York Giants
2-3 · #31
7
Spread
CIN -4.5
✓ CIN W ATS
Total
45.5 ▼3
▼ Under 24
Projected
26–22
✓ CIN won
Trend: Under ✓ Model: NYG by 4 ✗ Model: Over 2 ✗ Cover settled: Q4

Monday, Oct 14

1
Final · Division
Buffalo Bills
3-2 · #4
23
New York Jets
2-3 · #23
20
Spread
BUF -1.5
✓ BUF W ATS
Total
42.5 ▲1
▲ Over 43 · Q4
Projected
21–19
✓ BUF won
Trend: Under ✗Trend: NYJ ATS ✗ Model: BUF by 2 ✓ Model: Under 2.5 ✗ Cover settled: Q4
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StatusMatchupSpreadMoveTotalModelSignalDetails
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Hover a column name for what it means. Records are before kickoff; #N = power rank. Data signal badges: green = ATS, teal = Over, purple = Under; solid = moderate or strong lean (blue left edge on the row); ✓/✗ = how the lean did. ↗ Line toward model the line (or total) has moved toward the model's pick since the open; hover it for how such picks have done. small sample · QB ⓘ quarterback on the injury report (hover or tap it to see who). In our 2023–26 backtest, moderate-or-stronger ATS leans went 117-99 (54%) and total leans 21-24 (47%), so treat them as context, not picks.
Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total