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NFL · 2024

NFL Week 16 games

FinalCurrentUpcomingWeek 16: 1st-half lines & halftime results ›Spread edge and Total edge = our projection vs the market ⓘ · Trend = this season’s results
16 finalFavorites 11-5 ATS4 upsetsO/U 10-6Model Favorite 12-4Week in numbers ›

Week in numbers

Tap a number to filter the games below
Games1616 final · 0 to play
Favorites ATS11-569% covered
Upsets4outright
Over / Under10-663% over
Model Favorite12-475% won
Totals moved 1+ ptTap to filter
Moved up10 all 10 final
Over6 60%Under4 40%
Moved down6 all 6 final
Over4 67%Under2 33%
Did the team the spread moved toward cover? ATS vs the closing line, by how far it moved
Moved towardThis week20242024–2026
Any move
6–746%
99–11446%
229–252–448%
1.5+ pts
3–260%
46–5048%
116–117–250%
3+ pts
2–167%
17–1455%
56–58–149%
5+ pts
—
6–275%
17–1652%
7+ pts
—
0–10%
2–722%
Covered–didn’t–push; % leaves out pushes and is grey under 10 games; green or red from 10 games. ClickTap a row or count to filter.
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Thursday, Dec 19

1
Final · Division
Denver Broncos
9-5 · #15
27
Los Angeles Chargers
8-6 · #13
34
Spread
LAC -2.5
✓ LAC W ATS
Total
41.5 ▼1
▲ Over 61 · Q3
Projected
20–22
✓ LAC won
Model: DEN by 1.5 ✗ Model: Over 0.5 ✓ Cover settled: Q4

Saturday, Dec 21

2
Final · Non-conf
Houston Texans
9-5 · #11
19
Kansas City Chiefs
13-1 · #6
27
Spread
KC -3.5
✓ KC W ATS
Total
42.5 ▲1
▲ Over 46 · Q4
Projected
20–23
✓ KC won
Trend: KC ATS ✓ Model: KC by 1 ✓ Model: Over 0.5 ✓ Cover settled: Q1
Final · Division
Pittsburgh Steelers
10-4 · #12
17
Baltimore Ravens
9-5 · #1
34
Spread
BAL -7.5
✓ BAL W ATS
Total
45.5 ▼1
▲ Over 51 · Q4
Projected
19–27
✓ BAL won
Model: Over 1 ✓ Cover settled: Q4

Sunday, Dec 22

12
Final · Non-conf
New York Giants
2-12 · #31
7
Atlanta Falcons
7-7 · #20
34
Spread
ATL -9.5
✓ ATL W ATS
Total
43.5 ▲1
▼ Under 41
Projected
17–26
✓ ATL won
Trend: ATL ATS ✓ Model: NYG by 1 ✗ Cover settled: Q2
Final · Division
Detroit Lions
12-2 · #3
34
Chicago Bears
4-10 · #24
17
Spread
DET -6.5
✓ DET W ATS
Total
47.5 ▲1
▲ Over 51 · Q3
Projected
27–20
✓ DET won
Model: DET by 3 ✓ Model: Under 0.5 ✗ Cover settled: Q1
Final · Division
Cleveland Browns
3-11 · #28
6
Cincinnati Bengals
6-8 · #14
24
Spread
CIN -10.5
✓ CIN W ATS
Total
46.5 ▼3
▼ Under 30
Projected
20–30
✓ CIN won
Trend: CIN ATS ✓Trend: Under ✓ Model: CLE by 4 ✗ Model: Over 3.5 ✗ Cover settled: Q2
Final · Division
Tennessee Titans
3-11 · #26
30
Indianapolis Colts
6-8 · #21
38
Spread
IND -4.5
✓ IND W ATS
Total
43.5 ▲1
▲ Over 68 · Q3
Projected
20–25
✓ IND won
Trend: IND ATS ✓ Model: TEN by 2 ✗ Model: Over 1.5 ✓ Cover settled: Q2
Final · Non-conf
Los Angeles Rams
8-6 · #16
19
New York Jets
4-10 · #23
9
Spread
LAR -2.5
✓ LAR W ATS
Total
46.5 ▼1
▼ Under 28
Projected
23–21
✓ LAR won
Trend: LAR ATS ✓ Model: NYJ by 0.5 ✗ Model: Under 2 ✓ Cover settled: Q4
Final · Division
Philadelphia Eagles
12-2 · #2
33
Washington Commanders
9-5 · #10
36
Spread
PHI -4.5
✓ WSH W ATS
Total
47.5 ▲1
▲ Over 69 · Q4
Projected
26–21
✗ PHI lost
Trend: PHI ATS ✗ Model: WSH by 1.5 ✓ Model: Under 0.5 ✗ Cover settled: Q4
Final · Non-conf
Arizona Cardinals
7-7 · #17
30
Carolina Panthers
3-11 · #32
36
Spread
ARI -5.5
✓ CAR W ATS
Total
47.5 ▲1
▲ Over 66 · Q4
Projected
26–20
✗ ARI lost
Trend: ARI ATS ✗ Model: ARI by 2.5 ✗ Model: Under 1.5 ✗ Cover settled: Q1
Final · Non-conf
Minnesota Vikings
12-2 · #8
27
Seattle Seahawks
8-6 · #19
24
Spread
MIN -2.5
✓ MIN W ATS
Total
43.5 ▲1
▲ Over 51 · Q4
Projected
23–20
✓ MIN won
Trend: MIN ATS ✓Trend: Under ✗ Model: SEA by 0 ✗ Model: Under 0.5 ✗ Cover settled: Q1
Final · Division
New England Patriots
3-11 · #30
21
Buffalo Bills
11-3 · #4
24
Spread
BUF -14.5
✓ NE W ATS
Total
47.5 ▲1
▼ Under 45
Projected
16–31
✓ BUF won
Model: BUF by 0.5 ✗ Model: Under 0.5 ✓ Cover settled: Q1
Final · Non-conf
Jacksonville Jaguars
3-11 · #29
14
Las Vegas Raiders
2-12 · #27
19
Spread
LV -2.5
✓ LV W ATS
Total
41.5 ▲2
▼ Under 33
Projected
22–24
✓ LV won
Trend: Over ✗ Model: JAX by 2.5 ✗ Model: Over 4.5 ✗ Cover settled: Q4
Final · Non-conf
San Francisco 49ers
6-8 · #9
17
Miami Dolphins
6-8 · #18
29
Spread
SF -1.5
✓ MIA W ATS
Total
44.5 ▼2
▲ Over 46 · Q4
Projected
24–22
✗ SF lost
Trend: SF ATS ✗Trend: Under ✗ Model: SF by 2.5 ✗ Model: Over 1.5 ✓ Cover settled: Q1
Final · Non-conf
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
8-6 · #7
24
Dallas Cowboys
6-8 · #22
26
Spread
TB -4.5
✓ DAL W ATS
Total
47.5 ▼1
▲ Over 50 · Q4
Projected
28–23
✗ TB lost
Trend: TB ATS ✗ Model: TB by 0.5 ✗ Model: Over 3.5 ✓ Cover settled: Q1

Monday, Dec 23

1
Final · Non-conf
New Orleans Saints
5-9 · #25
0
Green Bay Packers
10-4 · #5
34
Spread
GB -14.5
✓ GB W ATS
Total
43.5 ▲1
▼ Under 34
Projected
15–29
✓ GB won
Model: NO by 0 ✗ Model: Over 1 ✗ Cover settled: Q2
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Hover a column name for what it means. Records are before kickoff; #N = power rank. Data signal badges: green = ATS, teal = Over, purple = Under; solid = moderate or strong lean (blue left edge on the row); ✓/✗ = how the lean did. ↗ Line toward model the line (or total) has moved toward the model's pick since the open; hover it for how such picks have done. small sample · QB ⓘ quarterback on the injury report (hover or tap it to see who). In our 2023–26 backtest, moderate-or-stronger ATS leans went 117-99 (54%) and total leans 21-24 (47%), so treat them as context, not picks.
Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total