Lions @ Bears: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 16, 2024)

Sun, Dec 22, 2024, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 16 · at Chicago Bears · Division game

Weather at kickoff28°F7 mphgusts 17DryCold Over 55% of 98 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Detroit Lions

12-2 · Power #3

▲ winner

Final

Chicago Bears

4-10 · Power #24

final

Closing spread

DET -6.5

✓ DET W

Total

47.5

▲ Over · 51 pts

Model before kickoff

DET 27–20 CHI

✓ DET (73%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenDET -7.5

CloseDET -6.5

Total46.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenDET -7.5

1 → CHI

CloseDET -6.5

1 pt toward Chicago Bears

Total

Open46.5

▲ 1

Close47.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened DET -7.5 · closed DET -6.5 · moved 1 toward CHImodel DET -9.5

model DET -9.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 4.5–8.5 since 2023: won 72%, covered 49% (50 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 41% (32 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenDET -7.5

CloseDET -6.5

Total46.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like DET as a 6.5-point road favorite at CHI, the favorite won 8, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: DET won 34–17; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 51 points went over 47.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 67%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 44%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.1 against an average line of 6.2; 46.9 points a game (usually 45.6). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BAL @ CLE 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	24–29	L	O44.5
Very close	DET @ IND 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & rest	-6.5	24–6	W	U49.5
Close	BUF @ IND 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & season form	-4.5	30–20	W	O46.5
Close	BUF @ LAR 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar season form & rest	-3.5	42–44	L	O50.5
Close	WSH @ NO 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar season form	-7.5	20–19	L	U44.5
Close	PHI @ DAL 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar rest	-7.5	34–6	W	U44.5
Loose	GB @ CHI 2024 · Week 11 · loose · similar situation & spread	-6.5	20–19	L	U41.5
Loose	DET @ HOU 2024 · Week 10 · loose · similar season form & total	-4.5	26–23	L	U49.5
Loose	KC @ LV 2024 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest	-8.5	27–20	L	O42.5
Loose	MIN @ TEN 2024 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest & situation	-5.5	23–13	W	U40.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DET WWLLL	9-5	64%	5-1	8-5
CHI WLWLL	7-7	50%	4-2	4-6

Venue/role: DET away, as favorite; CHI home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
DET OUUOO	7-7	50%	12-2
CHI UOUOU	5-9	36%	4-10

Went over in Q3. Of 94 earlier overs in games with totals 44.5–50.5, 23% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DET	9-1 90%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%
CHI	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

DET 26–28 CHI CHI leads · 54 games since 1999 · DET has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 28 2024	Chicago Bears 20 @ Detroit Lions 23	DET -10	CHI W
Dec 10 2023	Detroit Lions 13 @ Chicago Bears 28	DET -3	CHI W
Nov 19 2023	Chicago Bears 26 @ Detroit Lions 31	DET -8	CHI W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

DET+1.6 →+5.5▲ 3.9#2

CHI−0.3 →−2.2▼ 1.9#25

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW15

DET

Longer bar = better

CHI

Offense

◀ DET better

#27

#11

Defense

◀ DET better

#17

+0.5 #8

Turnovers

CHI better ▶

+0.7 #4

66 plays #3

Pace

◀ DET faster

64 plays #9

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When DET has the ball

Advantage: DET offense

	DET off	CHI def	Edge
Points / game	32.8 #1	22.0 #11	DET
Yards / play	6.16 #4	5.78 #29	DET
EPA / play	+0.15 #3	0.00 #15	DET
Success rate	49% #2	44% #14	DET

When CHI has the ball

Advantage: DET defense

	CHI off	DET def	Edge
Points / game	19.0 #25	20.1 #7	DET
Yards / play	4.53 #32	5.63 #24	DET
EPA / play	−0.07 #25	−0.08 #5	DET
Success rate	40% #27	41% #7	DET

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

DET scoring against the CHI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DET scored	3.9 #18	14.1 #1	18.1 #1	8.6 #1	5.7 #24	14.3 #5
CHI allowed	5.2 #25	7.1 #20	12.4 #20	4.1 #5	5.4 #10	9.4 #6

CHI scoring against the DET defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CHI scored	1.4 #32	5.4 #22	6.9 #31	4.2 #21	7.9 #6	12.1 #12
DET allowed	4.9 #23	4.3 #1	9.2 #6	5.4 #20	5.6 #12	10.9 #16

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.