Vikings @ Seahawks: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 16, 2024)

Sun, Dec 22, 2024, 4:05 PM ESTWeek 16 · at Seattle Seahawks

Weather at kickoff47°F14 mphgusts 25Wet0.1 mmWindy Over 46% of 93 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Minnesota Vikings

12-2 · Power #8

▲ winner

Final

Seattle Seahawks

8-6 · Power #19

final

Closing spread

MIN -2.5

✓ MIN W

Total

43.5

▲ Over · 51 pts

Model before kickoff

MIN 23–20 SEA

✓ MIN (59%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIN -4.5

CloseMIN -2.5

Total42.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMIN -4.5

2 → SEA

CloseMIN -2.5

2 pts toward Seattle Seahawks

Total

Open42.5

▲ 1

Close43.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MIN -4.5 · closed MIN -2.5 · moved 2 toward SEAmodel MIN -2.5 matches the line

model MIN -2.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 65%, covered 55% (89 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3Too few earlier games to rateⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIN -4.5

CloseMIN -2.5

Total42.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MIN as a 2.5-point road favorite at SEA, the favorite won 8, covered 8, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: MIN won 27–24; the favorite covered, as in 8 of the 10 similar games. 51 points went over 43.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 45%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.8 against an average line of 2.2; 41.6 points a game (usually 44.1). Of the 4 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BUF @ NYJ 2024 · Week 6 · very close · similar season form & total	-1.5	23–20	W	O42.5
Very close	LAC @ ARI 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & rest	-1.5	15–17	L	U44.5
Very close	MIN @ CHI 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar season form & rest	-2.5	30–27	W	O39.5
Very close	MIN @ LAR 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & team ratings	-2.5	20–30	L	O46.5
Very close	LAC @ CLE 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & situation	-1.5	27–10	W	U41.5
Close	PHI @ LAR 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar season form & situation	-2.5	37–20	W	O47.5
Close	GB @ SEA 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar season form & team ratings	-2.5	30–13	W	U48.5
Close	KC @ ATL 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	22–17	W	U46.5
Close	KC @ CLE 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar situation & rest	-3.5	21–7	W	U41.5
Close	LAC @ ATL 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar team ratings & season form	-0.5	17–13	W	U47.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIN WWLWW	10-4	71%	4-2	6-4
SEA WWWWL	6-8	43%	2-6	5-5

Venue/role: MIN away, as favorite; SEA home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIN UOUOU	5-9	36%	12-2
SEA UUOOU	7-7	50%	8-6

Went over in Q4. Of 125 earlier overs in games with totals 40.5–46.5, 20% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MIN	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
SEA	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

MIN 5–10 SEA SEA leads · 15 games since 2002 · SEA has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MIN−0.1 →+2.6▲ 2.7#8

SEA−0.6 →−0.4▲ 0.2#19

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW15

MIN

Longer bar = better

SEA

#11

Offense

◀ MIN better

#17

Defense

◀ MIN better

#16

+0.6 #7

Turnovers

◀ MIN better

−0.4 #23

61 plays #21

Pace

SEA faster ▶

62 plays #17

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MIN has the ball

Advantage: MIN offense

	MIN off	SEA def	Edge
Points / game	26.4 #8	22.4 #15	MIN
Yards / play	5.69 #12	5.43 #15	Even
EPA / play	+0.03 #12	−0.01 #12	Even
Success rate	46% #11	45% #23	MIN

When SEA has the ball

Advantage: MIN defense

	SEA off	MIN def	Edge
Points / game	22.5 #14	18.0 #2	MIN
Yards / play	5.41 #15	5.22 #7	MIN
EPA / play	−0.04 #23	−0.11 #2	MIN
Success rate	43% #16	40% #4	MIN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

MIN scoring against the SEA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIN scored	7.3 #2	5.3 #25	12.6 #13	6.6 #5	6.9 #12	13.6 #8
SEA allowed	5.1 #24	6.4 #13	11.5 #16	5.1 #16	5.3 #10	10.4 #12

SEA scoring against the MIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SEA scored	4.1 #18	6.8 #18	10.9 #18	4.7 #15	6.7 #16	11.4 #14
MIN allowed	2.6 #2	4.9 #2	7.5 #1	4.1 #8	6.4 #17	10.5 #14

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.