Eagles @ Rams: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2024)

Sun, Nov 24, 2024, 8:20 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Los Angeles Rams

Weather at kickoff56°F5 mphgusts 12DryWeather watch ›

Philadelphia Eagles

8-2 · Power #2

▲ winner

Final

Los Angeles Rams

5-5 · Power #16

final

Closing spread

PHI -2.5

✓ PHI W

Total

47.5

▲ Over · 57 pts

Model before kickoff

PHI 25–22 LAR

✓ PHI (60%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPHI -2.5

ClosePHI -2.5

Total47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenPHI -2.5

no move

ClosePHI -2.5

No change since the open

Total

Open47.5

no move

Close47.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened PHI -2.5 · unchangedmodel PHI -5

model PHI -5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 62%, covered 53% (79 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPHI -2.5

ClosePHI -2.5

Total47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like PHI as a 2.5-point road favorite at LAR, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: PHI won 37–20; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 57 points went over 47.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 44%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.4 against an average line of 3.2; 50.8 points a game (usually 43.9). Of the 6 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BUF @ IND 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar team ratings & season form	-4.5	30–20	W	O46.5
Very close	MIN @ LAR 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.5	20–30	L	O46.5
Very close	LAC @ ARI 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar season form & rest	-1.5	15–17	L	U44.5
Very close	BAL @ CIN 2024 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-2.5	41–38	W	O47.5
Close	GB @ JAX 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & total	-3.5	30–27	L	O49.5
Close	SF @ SEA 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & team ratings	-3.5	36–24	W	O48.5
Close	DET @ HOU 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & season form	-4.5	26–23	L	U49.5
Close	GB @ LAR 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & spread	-2.5	24–19	W	U49.5
Close	WSH @ NYG 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & season form	-3.5	27–22	W	O42.5
Close	KC @ ATL 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar total & season form	-3.5	22–17	W	U46.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PHI WWLWW	6-4	60%	4-1	4-4
LAR LWWLW	4-6	40%	2-3	2-4

Venue/role: PHI away, as favorite; LAR home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
PHI UOOUU	4-6	40%	8-2
LAR UOUUO	5-5	50%	5-5

Went over in Q4. Of 80 earlier overs in games with totals 44.5–50.5, 24% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PHI	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
LAR	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

PHI 12–5 LAR PHI leads · 17 games since 1999 · LAR has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 8 2023	Philadelphia Eagles 23 @ Los Angeles Rams 14	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

PHI−0.1 →+4.0▲ 4.1#5

LAR+0.7 →−0.4▼ 1.1#17

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

PHI

Longer bar = better

LAR

Offense

◀ PHI better

#15

Defense

◀ PHI better

#22

+0.2 #11

Turnovers

Even

+0.4 #8

66 plays #1

Pace

◀ PHI faster

62 plays #17

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When PHI has the ball

Advantage: PHI offense

	PHI off	LAR def	Edge
Points / game	25.9 #8	23.9 #22	PHI
Yards / play	5.76 #9	5.62 #24	PHI
EPA / play	+0.10 #7	+0.01 #19	PHI
Success rate	46% #11	45% #23	PHI

When LAR has the ball

Advantage: PHI defense

	LAR off	PHI def	Edge
Points / game	21.3 #20	17.9 #5	PHI
Yards / play	5.42 #17	4.70 #2	PHI
EPA / play	−0.02 #17	−0.10 #6	PHI
Success rate	47% #7	39% #3	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

PHI scoring against the LAR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PHI scored	1.4 #31	8.4 #10	9.8 #19	7.3 #4	8.8 #2	16.1 #1
LAR allowed	6.3 #30	5.8 #10	12.1 #19	6.1 #30	5.1 #10	11.2 #17

LAR scoring against the PHI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LAR scored	1.3 #32	7.0 #13	8.3 #29	6.1 #10	6.3 #17	12.4 #10
PHI allowed	4.0 #14	4.8 #3	8.8 #5	4.8 #11	4.3 #5	9.1 #9

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.