49ers @ Packers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2024)

Sun, Nov 24, 2024, 4:25 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Green Bay Packers

Weather at kickoff42°F10 mphgusts 24DryWeather watch ›

San Francisco 49ers

5-5 · Power #9

final

Final

Green Bay Packers

7-3 · Power #5

▲ winner

Closing spread

GB -6.5

✓ GB W

Total

44.5

▲ Over · 48 pts

Model before kickoff

SF 19–25 GB

✓ GB (72%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenGB -1.5

CloseGB -6.5

Total47.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenGB -1.5

5 → GB

CloseGB -6.5

5 pts toward Green Bay Packers

Total

Open47.5

▼ 3

Close44.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened GB -1.5 · closed GB -6.5 · moved 5 toward GBmodel GB -5

model GB -5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 66%, covered 43% (70 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3Too few earlier games to rateⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenGB -1.5

CloseGB -6.5

Total47.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like GB as a 6.5-point home favorite against SF, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: GB won 38–10; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 48 points went over 44.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 65%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 42%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6 against an average line of 6.4; 45.2 points a game (usually 45.5). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	SF vs MIA 2022 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest & season form	-5	33–17	W	O45.5
Loose	GB vs SF 2021 · Postseason · loose · similar season form & team ratings	-6	10–13	L	U47.5
Loose	BAL vs SEA 2023 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest & situation	-6	37–3	W	U44
Loose	BUF vs CIN 2022 · Postseason · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-6	10–27	L	U48.5
Loose	DAL vs LAR 2023 · Week 8 · loose · similar season form	-7	43–20	W	O44.5
Loose	BAL vs CIN 2021 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest	-6	17–41	L	O46
Loose	KC vs MIA 2023 · Postseason · loose · similar rest & season form	-4.5	26–7	W	U43.5
Loose	GB vs CLE 2021 · Week 16 · loose · similar season form & situation	-8	24–22	L	U47
Loose	CIN vs BAL 2022 · Postseason · loose · similar rest & season form	-7.5	24–17	L	O40
Loose	BUF vs MIA 2022 · Week 15 · loose · similar rest & season form	-7.5	32–29	L	O42

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SF WLWLL	4-6	40%	1-3	—
GB WLLLL	4-6	40%	2-3	2-4

Venue/role: SF away, as underdog; GB home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SF OUOUU	5-5	50%	5-5
GB OUOUU	5-5	50%	7-3

Went over in Q4. Of 106 earlier overs in games with totals 41.5–47.5, 21% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SF	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
GB	7-3 70%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

SF 8–13 GB GB leads · 21 games since 1999 · GB has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Jan 20 2023	Green Bay Packers 21 @ San Francisco 49ers 24	SF -10.5	GB W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SF+3.2 →+4.3▲ 1.1#4

GB+0.5 →+3.1▲ 2.6#7

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

Longer bar = better

Offense

◀ SF better

#10

#12

Defense

◀ SF better

#16

+0.3 #11

Turnovers

GB better ▶

+0.5 #7

62 plays #13

Pace

◀ SF faster

61 plays #20

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SF has the ball

Advantage: SF offense

	SF off	GB def	Edge
Points / game	25.0 #8	21.3 #10	Even
Yards / play	6.39 #2	5.34 #14	SF
EPA / play	+0.11 #5	−0.03 #13	SF
Success rate	47% #7	47% #28	SF

When GB has the ball

Even matchup

	GB off	SF def	Edge
Points / game	25.0 #9	22.2 #16	GB
Yards / play	6.32 #4	5.09 #8	Even
EPA / play	+0.07 #11	−0.04 #9	Even
Success rate	43% #15	43% #15	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

SF scoring against the GB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SF scored	5.6 #7	6.9 #17	12.5 #14	6.4 #8	6.1 #19	12.5 #9
GB allowed	2.7 #4	10.4 #30	13.1 #26	5.0 #14	3.2 #1	8.2 #5

GB scoring against the SF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GB scored	5.7 #6	7.0 #14	12.7 #13	6.2 #10	6.1 #19	12.3 #12
SF allowed	2.0 #2	5.6 #9	7.6 #2	5.8 #25	8.8 #27	14.6 #27

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.