Buccaneers @ Giants: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2024)

Sun, Nov 24, 2024, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at New York Giants

Weather at kickoff51°F15 mphgusts 36DryWindy Over 46% of 93 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

4-6 · Power #7

▲ winner

Final

New York Giants

2-8 · Power #31

final

Closing spread

TB -6.5

✓ TB W

Total

40.5

▼ Under · 37 pts

Model before kickoff

TB 24–18 NYG

✓ TB (72%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTB -4

CloseTB -6.5

Total42.5 → 40.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTB -4

2.5 → TB

CloseTB -6.5

2.5 pts toward Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Total

Open42.5

▼ 2

Close40.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TB -4 · closed TB -6.5 · moved 2.5 toward TBmodel TB -4.5

model TB -4.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 4.5–8.5 since 2023: won 66%, covered 45% (41 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTB -4

CloseTB -6.5

Total42.5 → 40.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TB as a 6.5-point road favorite at NYG, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: TB won 30–7; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 37 points stayed under 40.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 65%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 42%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.1 against an average line of 6.3; 42.9 points a game (usually 45.5). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	CIN @ CLE 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar team ratings & total	-5.5	21–14	W	U42.5
Close	MIN @ JAX 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & spread	-7.5	12–7	L	U42.5
Close	ATL @ CAR 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & situation	-6.5	38–20	W	O45.5
Close	GB @ CHI 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar situation	-6.5	20–19	L	U41.5
Loose	NYJ @ NE 2024 · Week 8 · loose	-7.5	22–25	L	O41.5
Loose	HOU @ DAL 2024 · Week 11 · loose · similar total & season form	-7.5	34–10	W	O41.5
Loose	CIN @ NYG 2024 · Week 6 · loose · similar situation	-4.5	17–7	W	U45.5
Loose	GB @ NYG 2023 · Week 14 · loose · similar situation & season form	-5.5	22–24	L	O37
Loose	CIN @ PIT 2022 · Week 11 · loose · similar season form & situation	-5	37–30	W	O39.5
Loose	SEA @ LAR 2022 · Week 13 · loose · similar season form & team ratings	-7	27–23	L	O41

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TB WLLWW	6-4	60%	3-1	2-1
NYG LLLLL	3-7	30%	1-4	3-5

Venue/role: TB away, as favorite; NYG home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TB OOOOU	7-3	70%	4-6
NYG UUOOU	3-7	30%	2-8

Stayed under: it needed 11 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 50% of games with totals 37.5–43.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TB	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%
NYG	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

TB 5–8 NYG NYG leads · 13 games since 1999 · TB has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TB+0.1 →+0.4▲ 0.3#14

NYG−2.2 →−4.0▼ 1.8#29

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

Longer bar = better

NYG

Offense

◀ TB better

#26

#29

Defense

NYG better ▶

#23

0.0 #16

Turnovers

◀ TB better

−0.6 #27

62 plays #14

Pace

NYG faster ▶

65 plays #6

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TB has the ball

Advantage: TB offense

	TB off	NYG def	Edge
Points / game	27.9 #5	22.2 #17	TB
Yards / play	5.82 #8	5.62 #25	TB
EPA / play	+0.09 #8	+0.06 #24	TB
Success rate	48% #5	46% #24	TB

When NYG has the ball

Even matchup

	NYG off	TB def	Edge
Points / game	15.6 #32	26.6 #27	TB
Yards / play	4.75 #28	5.86 #29	Even
EPA / play	−0.08 #26	+0.09 #29	Even
Success rate	42% #17	47% #30	NYG

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

TB scoring against the NYG defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TB scored	7.0 #2	7.5 #12	14.5 #4	4.7 #15	8.7 #3	13.4 #7
NYG allowed	5.8 #29	5.7 #10	11.5 #18	5.3 #18	5.1 #9	10.4 #14

NYG scoring against the TB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NYG scored	2.2 #29	5.2 #24	7.4 #31	3.3 #24	4.9 #27	8.2 #29
TB allowed	4.1 #13	10.4 #29	14.5 #28	5.6 #19	5.3 #12	10.9 #16

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.