Buccaneers @ Panthers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2024)

Sun, Dec 1, 2024, 4:05 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Carolina Panthers · Division game

Weather at kickoff47°F5 mphgusts 17DryWeather watch ›

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

5-6 · Power #7

▲ winner

Final

Carolina Panthers

3-8 · Power #32

final

Closing spread

TB -6.5

✓ CAR W

Total

46.5

▲ Over · 49 pts

Model before kickoff

TB 28–21 CAR

✓ TB (73%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTB -6.5

CloseTB -6.5

Total46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTB -6.5

no move

CloseTB -6.5

No change since the open

Total

Open46.5

no move

Close46.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TB -6.5 · unchangedmodel TB -10.5

model TB -10.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 4.5–8.5 since 2023: won 68%, covered 49% (44 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTB -6.5

CloseTB -6.5

Total46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TB as a 6.5-point road favorite at CAR, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 8 went over the total.

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This game: TB won 26–23; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 49 points went over 46.5, as in 8 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 65%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 43%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Above normal · usually 48%

Overs above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 8.2 against an average line of 6.9; 49.6 points a game (usually 45.5). Of the 7 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	PHI @ DAL 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & season form	-7.5	34–6	W	U44.5
Close	SF @ LAR 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	24–27	L	O44.5
Close	KC @ LV 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & season form	-8.5	27–20	L	O42.5
Close	ATL @ CAR 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar situation	-6.5	38–20	W	O45.5
Close	DEN @ LV 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & season form	-5.5	29–19	W	O41.5
Close	BAL @ CLE 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	24–29	L	O44.5
Close	NO @ CAR 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	22–23	L	O43.5
Close	MIN @ DET 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar team ratings & situation	-7	27–29	L	O47
Loose	CIN @ CAR 2024 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & spread	-5.5	34–24	W	O47.5
Loose	SF @ JAX 2021 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest & situation	-7	30–10	W	U45.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TB LLWWW	7-4	64%	4-1	3-1
CAR LLWWW	4-7	36%	2-3	4-7

Venue/role: TB away, as favorite; CAR home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TB OOOUU	7-4	64%	5-6
CAR UOOUO	8-3	73%	3-8

Went over in OT. Of 96 earlier overs in games with totals 43.5–49.5, 24% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TB	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%
CAR	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

TB 23–25 CAR CAR leads · 48 games since 2002 · TB has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Jan 7 2023	Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9 @ Carolina Panthers 0	TB -4.5	TB W
Dec 3 2023	Carolina Panthers 18 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 21	TB -3.5	CAR W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TB+0.1 →+1.2▲ 1.1#11

CAR−2.5 →−7.2▼ 4.7#32

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

Longer bar = better

CAR

Offense

◀ TB better

#26

#27

Defense

◀ TB better

#31

0.0 #16

Turnovers

◀ TB better

−0.5 #24

62 plays #15

Pace

◀ TB faster

57 plays #31

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TB has the ball

Advantage: TB offense

	TB off	CAR def	Edge
Points / game	28.1 #4	30.9 #32	TB
Yards / play	5.95 #5	5.79 #29	TB
EPA / play	+0.10 #6	+0.13 #31	TB
Success rate	48% #4	49% #32	TB

When CAR has the ball

Even matchup

	CAR off	TB def	Edge
Points / game	17.6 #29	24.8 #24	TB
Yards / play	4.99 #25	5.75 #26	Even
EPA / play	−0.12 #28	+0.07 #27	Even
Success rate	41% #22	47% #29	CAR

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

TB scoring against the CAR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TB scored	7.0 #2	8.3 #9	15.3 #3	4.9 #14	7.9 #6	12.8 #8
CAR allowed	7.0 #31	11.9 #32	18.9 #32	5.7 #24	6.3 #17	12.0 #20

CAR scoring against the TB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CAR scored	3.5 #21	5.5 #24	8.9 #24	4.5 #17	3.9 #30	8.5 #28
TB allowed	3.7 #7	9.5 #28	13.2 #27	5.1 #19	5.5 #11	10.5 #16

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.