Seahawks @ Jets: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2024)

Sun, Dec 1, 2024, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at New York Jets

Weather at kickoff36°F11 mphgusts 28DryWindy Over 46% of 93 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Seattle Seahawks

6-5 · Power #19

▲ winner

Final

New York Jets

3-8 · Power #23

final

Closing spread

NYJ -1.5

✓ SEA W

Total

41.5

▲ Over · 47 pts

Model before kickoff

SEA 20–22 NYJ

✗ NYJ (54%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSEA -1.5

CloseNYJ -1.5

Total41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenSEA -1.5

3 → NYJ

CloseNYJ -1.5

3 pts toward New York Jets

Total

Open41.5

no move

Close41.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened SEA -1.5 · closed NYJ -1.5 · moved 3 toward NYJmodel SEA -1.5

model SEA -1.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 58%, covered 50% (62 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSEA -1.5

CloseNYJ -1.5

Total41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NYJ as a 1.5-point home favorite against SEA, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: SEA won 26–21 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 47 points went over 41.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 43%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.7 against an average line of 2.2; 41.7 points a game (usually 43.3). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TEN vs IND 2024 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	17–20	L	U41.5
Close	NYJ vs HOU 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar season form & situation	-2.5	21–13	W	U43.5
Close	IND vs CHI 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar season form & total	-2.5	21–16	W	U43.5
Close	ARI vs CHI 2024 · Week 9 · close	-1.5	29–9	W	U44.5
Close	ARI vs LAR 2024 · Week 2 · close · similar spread	-1.5	41–10	W	O47.5
Close	NYJ vs IND 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar season form & situation	-4.5	27–28	L	O43.5
Loose	CHI vs LAR 2024 · Week 4 · loose · similar total	-3.5	24–18	W	O40.5
Loose	WSH vs CLE 2022 · Week 17 · loose · similar team ratings & situation	-1	10–24	L	U41
Loose	DEN vs ATL 2024 · Week 11 · loose · similar situation & team ratings	-1.5	38–6	W	U44.5
Loose	LAR vs SF 2022 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & season form	-1	14–31	L	O42

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SEA WLLWW	4-7	36%	2-2	3-4
NYJ LLWLL	3-8	27%	2-3	3-5

Venue/role: SEA away, as underdog; NYJ home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SEA UUUUU	5-6	45%	6-5
NYJ OOUUO	5-6	45%	3-8

Went over in Q4. Of 97 earlier overs in games with totals 38.5–44.5, 21% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SEA	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%
NYJ	3-7 30%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

SEA 6–2 NYJ SEA leads · 8 games since 1999 · SEA has won the last 6 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SEA−0.6 →−0.5▲ 0.1#18

NYJ−1.2 →−1.8▼ 0.6#25

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

SEA

Longer bar = better

NYJ

#16

Offense

◀ SEA better

#22

#18

Defense

NYJ better ▶

#10

−0.5 #25

Turnovers

Even

−0.3 #22

63 plays #11

Pace

◀ SEA faster

59 plays #28

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SEA has the ball

Advantage: NYJ defense

	SEA off	NYJ def	Edge
Points / game	22.4 #15	22.0 #12	Even
Yards / play	5.50 #14	4.88 #4	NYJ
EPA / play	−0.04 #20	−0.01 #15	NYJ
Success rate	44% #14	41% #9	NYJ

When NYJ has the ball

Even matchup

	NYJ off	SEA def	Edge
Points / game	18.5 #27	22.2 #14	SEA
Yards / play	4.99 #24	5.47 #18	SEA
EPA / play	−0.03 #19	+0.01 #17	Even
Success rate	42% #19	45% #22	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

SEA scoring against the NYJ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SEA scored	3.6 #19	6.3 #20	9.9 #20	5.5 #13	6.7 #13	12.2 #11
NYJ allowed	4.9 #25	6.9 #17	11.8 #19	4.9 #11	5.3 #10	10.2 #12

NYJ scoring against the SEA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NYJ scored	3.6 #19	5.4 #24	9.0 #21	4.5 #18	5.1 #26	9.5 #23
SEA allowed	3.4 #7	6.6 #16	10.0 #11	5.5 #20	6.1 #16	11.6 #18

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.