Titans @ Commanders: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2024)

Sun, Dec 1, 2024, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Washington Commanders

Weather at kickoff42°F9 mphgusts 22DryWeather watch ›

Tennessee Titans

3-8 · Power #26

final

Final

Washington Commanders

7-5 · Power #10

▲ winner

Closing spread

WSH -5.5

✓ WSH W

Total

45.5

▲ Over · 61 pts

Model before kickoff

TEN 20–26 WSH

✓ WSH (69%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWSH -6.5

CloseWSH -5.5

Total44.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenWSH -6.5

1 → TEN

CloseWSH -5.5

1 pt toward Tennessee Titans

Total

Open44.5

▲ 1

Close45.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened WSH -6.5 · closed WSH -5.5 · moved 1 toward TENmodel WSH -5

model WSH -5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 66%, covered 46% (59 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 44% (25 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWSH -6.5

CloseWSH -5.5

Total44.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WSH as a 5.5-point home favorite against TEN, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: WSH won 42–19; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 61 points went over 45.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 63%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 45%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 46%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5.6 against an average line of 5.8; 46.6 points a game (usually 45.2). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MIN vs IND 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & total	-5.5	21–13	W	U46.5
Very close	WSH vs CLE 2024 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-3.5	34–13	W	O43.5
Close	TB vs DEN 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & spread	-5.5	7–26	L	U40.5
Close	SF vs DAL 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & spread	-5.5	30–24	W	O47.5
Close	HOU vs IND 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread	-4.5	23–20	L	U45.5
Close	PHI vs JAX 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & season form	-7.5	28–23	L	O46.5
Close	CIN vs LV 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	41–24	W	O44.5
Close	HOU vs TEN 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & season form	-7.5	27–32	L	O40.5
Close	LAC vs NO 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar situation	-7.5	26–8	W	U41.5
Close	GB vs HOU 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	24–22	L	U47.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TEN LLLLW	2-9	18%	2-4	2-6
WSH WWLLL	8-4	67%	4-2	5-2

Venue/role: TEN away, as underdog; WSH home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TEN OUOUO	6-5	55%	3-8
WSH UOOUO	8-4	67%	7-5

Went over in Q4. Of 104 earlier overs in games with totals 42.5–48.5, 21% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TEN	3-7 30%	2-8 20%	6-4 60%
WSH	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

TEN 4–4 WSH Series tied · 8 games since 2000 · WSH has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TEN−1.5 →−2.2▼ 0.7#26

WSH−3.1 →+0.5▲ 3.6#14

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

TEN

Longer bar = better

WSH

#29

Offense

WSH better ▶

#11

Defense

◀ TEN better

#20

−1.1 #31

Turnovers

WSH better ▶

+0.3 #11

61 plays #22

Pace

WSH faster ▶

63 plays #12

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TEN has the ball

Advantage: WSH defense

	TEN off	WSH def	Edge
Points / game	18.4 #28	23.1 #17	WSH
Yards / play	4.93 #27	5.56 #20	WSH
EPA / play	−0.14 #30	+0.03 #21	WSH
Success rate	38% #30	45% #23	WSH

When WSH has the ball

Advantage: WSH offense

	WSH off	TEN def	Edge
Points / game	27.8 #5	26.4 #27	WSH
Yards / play	5.90 #7	4.81 #3	Even
EPA / play	+0.14 #4	−0.05 #8	Even
Success rate	48% #5	39% #4	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

TEN scoring against the WSH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TEN scored	5.9 #5	4.5 #28	10.4 #17	4.3 #19	3.5 #32	7.7 #32
WSH allowed	3.0 #6	4.9 #5	7.9 #3	5.1 #14	10.1 #32	15.2 #29

WSH scoring against the TEN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WSH scored	5.6 #7	8.8 #7	14.3 #5	6.5 #7	7.0 #11	13.5 #6
TEN allowed	5.0 #27	7.2 #19	12.2 #20	7.5 #31	6.7 #20	14.2 #26

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.