Texans @ Jaguars: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2024)

Sun, Dec 1, 2024, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Jacksonville Jaguars · Division game

Weather at kickoff57°F5 mphgusts 14DryWeather watch ›

Houston Texans

7-5 · Power #11

▲ winner

Final

Jacksonville Jaguars

2-9 · Power #29

final

Closing spread

HOU -3.5

✓ JAX W

Total

44.5

▼ Under · 43 pts

Model before kickoff

HOU 26–22 JAX

✓ HOU (63%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenHOU -6.5

CloseHOU -3.5

Total42.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenHOU -6.5

3 → JAX

CloseHOU -3.5

3 pts toward Jacksonville Jaguars

Total

Open42.5

▲ 2

Close44.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened HOU -6.5 · closed HOU -3.5 · moved 3 toward JAXmodel HOU -4.5

model HOU -4.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 69%, covered 58% (75 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenHOU -6.5

CloseHOU -3.5

Total42.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like HOU as a 3.5-point road favorite at JAX, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: HOU won 23–20; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 43 points stayed under 44.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 44%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.8 against an average line of 3.1; 41.2 points a game (usually 43.9). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	GB @ LAR 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar team ratings & season form	-2.5	24–19	W	U49.5
Close	GB @ JAX 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	30–27	L	O49.5
Close	KC @ ATL 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar season form	-3.5	22–17	W	U46.5
Close	LAC @ ARI 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar total	-1.5	15–17	L	U44.5
Loose	LAC @ CLE 2024 · Week 9 · loose · similar situation	-1.5	27–10	W	U41.5
Loose	PHI @ WSH 2021 · Week 17 · loose · similar situation & team ratings	-3.5	20–16	W	U45
Loose	LAR @ NE 2024 · Week 11 · loose · similar situation	-4.5	28–22	W	O42.5
Loose	LAR @ ARI 2023 · Week 12 · loose · similar situation & season form	-3	37–14	W	O45
Loose	CAR @ NYG 2021 · Week 7 · loose · similar season form & situation	-3	3–25	L	U42.5
Loose	BAL @ PIT 2021 · Week 13 · loose · similar situation & season form	-4	19–20	L	U44

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
HOU LLWWL	5-7	42%	3-3	3-6
JAX WWWWL	6-5	55%	2-2	5-2

Venue/role: HOU away, as favorite; JAX home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
HOU UUUOO	4-8	33%	7-5
JAX OOOUO	7-4	64%	2-9

Stayed under: it needed 23 in the 4th quarter and got 21. 50% of games with totals 41.5–47.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
HOU	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%
JAX	2-8 20%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

HOU 33–16 JAX HOU leads · 49 games since 2002 · HOU has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 29 2024	Jacksonville Jaguars 20 @ Houston Texans 24	HOU -5.5	JAX W
Nov 26 2023	Jacksonville Jaguars 24 @ Houston Texans 21	JAX -1	JAX W
Sep 24 2023	Houston Texans 37 @ Jacksonville Jaguars 17	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

HOU+0.1 →+1.5▲ 1.4#10

JAX+0.2 →−3.9▼ 4.1#28

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

HOU

Longer bar = better

JAX

#20

Offense

Even

#22

Defense

◀ HOU better

#31

+0.8 #4

Turnovers

◀ HOU better

−0.7 #30

65 plays #5

Pace

◀ HOU faster

55 plays #32

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When HOU has the ball

Advantage: HOU offense

	HOU off	JAX def	Edge
Points / game	23.8 #12	28.7 #31	HOU
Yards / play	5.19 #19	6.15 #32	HOU
EPA / play	−0.04 #21	+0.18 #32	HOU
Success rate	38% #29	47% #27	Even

When JAX has the ball

Advantage: HOU defense

	JAX off	HOU def	Edge
Points / game	18.9 #25	22.3 #15	HOU
Yards / play	5.30 #18	4.98 #5	HOU
EPA / play	−0.06 #23	−0.11 #4	HOU
Success rate	40% #23	38% #1	HOU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

HOU scoring against the JAX defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HOU scored	6.8 #3	7.9 #12	14.7 #4	3.5 #24	5.6 #21	9.1 #26
JAX allowed	5.3 #28	9.7 #30	15.0 #30	4.5 #10	9.2 #27	13.7 #25

JAX scoring against the HOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JAX scored	2.7 #27	6.1 #21	8.8 #24	5.5 #12	4.5 #28	10.1 #21
HOU allowed	4.8 #23	4.8 #4	9.6 #7	5.6 #21	7.2 #23	12.8 #23

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.