Rams @ Saints: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2024)

Sun, Dec 1, 2024, 4:05 PM ESTWeek 13 · at New Orleans Saints

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Los Angeles Rams

5-6 · Power #16

▲ winner

Final

New Orleans Saints

4-7 · Power #25

final

Closing spread

LAR -2.5

✓ LAR W

Total

48.5

▼ Under · 35 pts

Model before kickoff

LAR 26–24 NO

✓ LAR (58%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLAR -2.5

CloseLAR -2.5

Total46.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenLAR -2.5

no move

CloseLAR -2.5

No change since the open

Total

Open46.5

▲ 2

Close48.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened LAR -2.5 · unchangedmodel Pick’em

model Pick’em

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 64%, covered 53% (83 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLAR -2.5

CloseLAR -2.5

Total46.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LAR as a 2.5-point road favorite at NO, the favorite won 4, covered 3, and 0 went over the total.

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This game: LAR won 21–14; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 35 points stayed under 48.5, as in 9 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

0 of 90%

Below normal · usually 45%

Overs below normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: underdog by 5.1 against an average line of 2.5; 40.1 points a game (usually 43.9). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	LAR @ SEA 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar team ratings & season form	-2	26–20	W	U48.5
Close	ATL @ NO 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & season form	-4.5	17–20	L	U47.5
Close	KC @ ATL 2024 · Week 3 · close	-3.5	22–17	W	U46.5
Close	NYJ @ ARI 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & season form	-1.5	6–31	L	U46.5
Close	LAC @ ARI 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & spread	-1.5	15–17	L	U44.5
Loose	LAC @ LV 2022 · Week 13 · loose · similar team ratings & season form	-2.5	20–27	L	U49.5
Loose	LV @ NO 2022 · Week 8 · loose · similar situation & team ratings	-2	0–24	L	U48.5
Loose	GB @ LAR 2024 · Week 5 · loose · similar total & spread	-2.5	24–19	W	U49.5
Loose	LAC @ ARI 2022 · Week 12 · loose · similar situation & team ratings	-3	25–24	L	P49
Loose	LV @ JAX 2022 · Week 9 · loose · similar season form & team ratings	-2	20–27	L	U48

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LAR WWLWL	4-7	36%	2-3	2-2
NO LLLWW	5-6	45%	3-3	4-4

Venue/role: LAR away, as favorite; NO home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LAR OUUOO	6-5	55%	5-6
NO OUOUO	7-4	64%	4-7

Stayed under: it needed 36 in the 4th quarter and got 22. 48% of games with totals 45.5–51.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LAR	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
NO	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

LAR 14–9 NO LAR leads · 23 games since 1999 · LAR has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 21 2023	New Orleans Saints 22 @ Los Angeles Rams 30	LAR -4	LAR W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LAR+0.7 →−1.1▼ 1.8#20

NO+0.5 →−1.5▼ 2.0#22

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

LAR

Longer bar = better

#15

Offense

Even

#14

#25

Defense

NO better ▶

#22

+0.3 #10

Turnovers

Even

+0.2 #12

62 plays #18

Pace

Even

62 plays #19

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LAR has the ball

Advantage: LAR offense

	LAR off	NO def	Edge
Points / game	21.2 #20	23.6 #20	Even
Yards / play	5.38 #17	6.06 #31	LAR
EPA / play	−0.02 #17	+0.01 #16	Even
Success rate	47% #7	45% #19	LAR

When NO has the ball

Advantage: NO offense

	NO off	LAR def	Edge
Points / game	23.8 #11	25.1 #26	NO
Yards / play	5.64 #13	5.76 #28	NO
EPA / play	−0.02 #16	+0.05 #22	NO
Success rate	42% #17	46% #25	NO

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

LAR scoring against the NO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LAR scored	1.8 #30	6.4 #20	8.2 #27	6.2 #8	6.3 #18	12.5 #10
NO allowed	3.9 #12	7.4 #20	11.3 #15	5.6 #23	6.7 #22	12.4 #21

NO scoring against the LAR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NO scored	5.1 #11	10.2 #3	15.3 #3	2.3 #32	6.3 #18	8.5 #27
LAR allowed	6.0 #29	6.2 #11	12.2 #20	6.8 #30	5.5 #12	12.4 #21

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.