Saints @ Giants: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2024)

Sun, Dec 8, 2024, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 14 · at New York Giants

Weather at kickoff52°F14 mphgusts 32DryWindy Over 46% of 93 games since 2023Weather watch ›

New Orleans Saints

4-8 · Power #25

▲ winner

Final

New York Giants

2-10 · Power #31

final

Closing spread

NO -5.5

✓ NYG W

Total

41.5

▼ Under · 25 pts

Model before kickoff

NO 23–18 NYG

✓ NO (68%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNO -3.5

CloseNO -5.5

Total39.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenNO -3.5

2 → NO

CloseNO -5.5

2 pts toward New Orleans Saints

Total

Open39.5

▲ 2

Close41.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened NO -3.5 · closed NO -5.5 · moved 2 toward NOmodel NO -3

model NO -3

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 3.5–7.5 since 2023: won 70%, covered 48% (67 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 44% (25 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNO -3.5

CloseNO -5.5

Total39.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NO as a 5.5-point road favorite at NYG, the favorite won 7, covered 7, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: NO won 14–11; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 25 points stayed under 41.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 64%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 45%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 8.4 against an average line of 5.5; 40 points a game (usually 45.4). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	DEN @ LV 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & total	-5.5	29–19	W	O41.5
Close	NYJ @ NE 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar season form & situation	-7.5	22–25	L	O41.5
Close	CIN @ CLE 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar season form & spread	-5.5	21–14	W	U42.5
Close	HOU @ NE 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-6.5	41–21	W	O39.5
Close	TB @ NYG 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & season form	-6.5	30–7	W	U40.5
Close	LAR @ NE 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar team ratings & situation	-4.5	28–22	W	O42.5
Close	ATL @ NO 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & season form	-4.5	17–20	L	U47.5
Loose	LAC @ NE 2023 · Week 13 · loose · similar situation & season form	-4.5	6–0	W	U38.5
Loose	PIT @ LV 2024 · Week 6 · loose · similar season form	-3.5	32–13	W	O36.5
Loose	LV @ LAR 2022 · Week 14 · loose · similar season form & situation	-6	16–17	L	U42

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NO LLWWL	5-7	42%	2-3	1-2
NYG LLLLL	3-9	25%	1-5	3-7

Venue/role: NO away, as favorite; NYG home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NO UOUOU	7-5	58%	4-8
NYG OOUUO	4-8	33%	2-10

Stayed under: it needed 25 in the 4th quarter and got 8. 50% of games with totals 38.5–44.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NO	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%
NYG	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

NO 10–6 NYG NO leads · 16 games since 1999 · NO has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 17 2023	New York Giants 6 @ New Orleans Saints 24	NO -6	NO W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NO+0.5 →−1.7▼ 2.2#24

NYG−2.2 →−4.6▼ 2.4#31

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

Longer bar = better

NYG

#16

Offense

◀ NO better

#28

#23

Defense

Even

#23

+0.2 #13

Turnovers

◀ NO better

−0.7 #29

62 plays #16

Pace

NYG faster ▶

64 plays #10

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NO has the ball

Advantage: NO offense

	NO off	NYG def	Edge
Points / game	23.0 #14	23.3 #18	Even
Yards / play	5.56 #13	5.67 #24	NO
EPA / play	−0.02 #18	+0.06 #27	NO
Success rate	42% #19	45% #23	Even

When NYG has the ball

Even matchup

	NYG off	NO def	Edge
Points / game	15.3 #32	23.4 #19	NO
Yards / play	4.68 #31	6.05 #31	Even
EPA / play	−0.10 #27	+0.02 #19	NO
Success rate	41% #20	45% #22	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

NO scoring against the NYG defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NO scored	4.9 #11	9.6 #3	14.5 #5	2.1 #32	6.4 #18	8.5 #28
NYG allowed	5.7 #28	6.9 #19	12.6 #23	6.2 #28	4.3 #3	10.4 #14

NYG scoring against the NO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NYG scored	2.4 #29	4.6 #28	7.0 #32	2.8 #30	5.5 #22	8.3 #31
NO allowed	3.6 #8	6.8 #16	10.3 #11	5.8 #24	7.3 #23	13.1 #24

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.