Packers @ Lions: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2024)

Thu, Dec 5, 2024, 8:15 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Detroit Lions · Division game

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Green Bay Packers

9-3 · Power #5

final

Final

Detroit Lions

11-1 · Power #3

▲ winner

Closing spread

DET -3.5

✓ GB W

Total

53.5

▲ Over · 65 pts

Model before kickoff

GB 23–27 DET

✓ DET (62%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenDET -3.5

CloseDET -3.5

Total51.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenDET -3.5

no move

CloseDET -3.5

No change since the open

Total

Open51.5

▲ 2

Close53.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened DET -3.5 · unchangedmodel DET -3

model DET -3

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 68%, covered 53% (115 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenDET -3.5

CloseDET -3.5

Total51.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like DET as a 3.5-point home favorite against GB, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: DET won 34–31; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 65 points went over 53.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 44%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.9 against an average line of 3.7; 49.1 points a game (usually 44). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BAL vs PHI 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	19–24	L	U51.5
Close	BUF vs KC 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	30–21	W	O47.5
Close	PHI vs WSH 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & spread	-4.5	26–18	W	U49.5
Close	GB vs HOU 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	24–22	L	U47.5
Close	DAL vs PHI 2023 · Week 14 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-3.5	33–13	W	U52.5
Loose	DAL vs SF 2021 · Postseason · loose · similar rest & situation	-3.5	17–23	L	U51.5
Loose	ARI vs LAR 2021 · Week 14 · loose · similar situation & rest	-3	23–30	L	O51
Loose	DAL vs DET 2023 · Week 17 · loose · similar rest & situation	-4.5	20–19	L	U53
Loose	BAL vs CIN 2024 · Week 10 · loose · similar situation	-5.5	35–34	L	O52.5
Loose	TB vs BUF 2021 · Week 14 · loose · similar rest	-3	33–27	W	O53

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GB LLLWW	6-6	50%	2-2	2-2
DET WLWWL	9-3	75%	4-2	8-3

Venue/role: GB away, as underdog; DET home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
GB OUUOU	6-6	50%	9-3
DET UUOUU	5-7	42%	11-1

Went over in Q4. Of 8 earlier overs in games with totals 50.5–56.5, 13% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GB	8-2 80%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
DET	10-0 100%	8-2 80%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

GB 36–18 DET GB leads · 54 games since 1999 · GB has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 3 2024	Detroit Lions 24 @ Green Bay Packers 14	DET -2.5	DET W
Nov 23 2023	Green Bay Packers 29 @ Detroit Lions 22	DET -8.5	GB W
Sep 28 2023	Detroit Lions 34 @ Green Bay Packers 20	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

GB+0.5 →+3.9▲ 3.4#5

DET+1.6 →+5.7▲ 4.1#1

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

Longer bar = better

DET

Offense

DET better ▶

#15

Defense

DET better ▶

+0.8 #6

Turnovers

Even

+0.7 #7

61 plays #21

Pace

DET faster ▶

64 plays #10

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When GB has the ball

Even matchup

	GB off	DET def	Edge
Points / game	26.5 #8	16.9 #2	DET
Yards / play	6.26 #2	5.32 #11	GB
EPA / play	+0.08 #8	−0.14 #1	DET
Success rate	44% #14	39% #4	DET

When DET has the ball

Advantage: DET offense

	DET off	GB def	Edge
Points / game	31.9 #1	20.0 #10	DET
Yards / play	6.20 #4	5.37 #15	DET
EPA / play	+0.15 #4	−0.05 #9	DET
Success rate	49% #1	46% #27	DET

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

GB scoring against the DET defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GB scored	6.8 #4	7.3 #13	14.0 #7	6.0 #10	6.5 #17	12.5 #10
DET allowed	4.6 #22	3.8 #2	8.4 #4	3.9 #7	4.6 #6	8.5 #6

DET scoring against the GB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DET scored	4.0 #17	14.5 #1	18.5 #1	8.8 #1	4.1 #30	12.9 #8
GB allowed	2.3 #2	9.5 #27	11.8 #19	5.1 #16	3.2 #1	8.3 #4

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.