Chiefs @ Bills: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2024)

Sun, Nov 17, 2024, 4:25 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Buffalo Bills

Weather at kickoff50°F3 mphgusts 10DryWeather watch ›

Kansas City Chiefs

9-0 · Power #6

final

Final

Buffalo Bills

8-2 · Power #4

▲ winner

Closing spread

BUF -2.5

✓ BUF W

Total

47.5

▲ Over · 51 pts

Model before kickoff

KC 21–24 BUF

✓ BUF (59%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBUF -2.5

CloseBUF -2.5

Total46.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBUF -2.5

no move

CloseBUF -2.5

No change since the open

Total

Open46.5

▲ 1

Close47.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BUF -2.5 · unchangedmodel BUF -2

model BUF -2

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 68%, covered 54% (108 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBUF -2.5

CloseBUF -2.5

Total46.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BUF as a 2.5-point home favorite against KC, the favorite won 4, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: BUF won 30–21; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 51 points went over 47.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 44%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 5.2 against an average line of 2.7; 54 points a game (usually 43.9). Of the 3 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	GB vs HOU 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	24–22	L	U47.5
Very close	WSH vs PIT 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & team ratings	-1.5	27–28	L	O45.5
Very close	SF vs KC 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & team ratings	-2.5	18–28	L	U47.5
Close	CIN vs PHI 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & total	-2.5	17–37	L	O47.5
Close	MIA vs BUF 2024 · Week 2 · close	-2.5	10–31	L	U49.5
Close	WSH vs CHI 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar total & situation	-1.5	18–15	W	U46.5
Close	DET vs SEA 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar rest	-4.5	42–29	W	O47.5
Close	ATL vs SEA 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	14–34	L	U51.5
Close	TB vs LAR 2021 · Postseason · close · similar rest & season form	-3	27–30	L	O48
Loose	LAC vs CLE 2021 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & situation	-2.5	47–42	W	O47

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
KC WWLLL	4-5	44%	2-2	1-0
BUF WWWLW	6-4	60%	2-2	5-2

Venue/role: KC away, as underdog; BUF home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
KC UUOOU	4-5	44%	9-0
BUF OOUOO	6-4	60%	8-2

Went over in Q4. Of 75 earlier overs in games with totals 44.5–50.5, 25% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
KC	10-0 100%	5-5 50%	4-5-1 44%
BUF	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

KC 11–12 BUF BUF leads · 23 games since 2000 · BUF has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Jan 21 2023	Kansas City Chiefs 27 @ Buffalo Bills 24	BUF -2.5	KC W
Dec 10 2023	Buffalo Bills 20 @ Kansas City Chiefs 17	KC -2	BUF W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

KC+2.2 →+4.3▲ 2.1#4

BUF+2.3 →+3.9▲ 1.6#5

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

Longer bar = better

BUF

#11

Offense

BUF better ▶

#11

Defense

Even

#12

−0.4 #24

Turnovers

BUF better ▶

+1.3 #1

67 plays #1

Pace

◀ KC faster

59 plays #28

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When KC has the ball

Even matchup

	KC off	BUF def	Edge
Points / game	24.3 #11	19.3 #9	Even
Yards / play	5.17 #19	5.44 #17	Even
EPA / play	+0.07 #10	−0.05 #10	Even
Success rate	50% #2	42% #13	KC

When BUF has the ball

Advantage: BUF offense

	BUF off	KC def	Edge
Points / game	29.0 #3	17.9 #5	Even
Yards / play	5.81 #9	5.08 #7	Even
EPA / play	+0.17 #2	−0.02 #14	BUF
Success rate	47% #8	43% #16	BUF

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

KC scoring against the BUF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KC scored	3.0 #26	9.2 #5	12.2 #14	3.2 #26	8.2 #4	11.4 #15
BUF allowed	5.4 #28	6.7 #17	12.1 #22	2.3 #3	4.9 #10	7.2 #3

BUF scoring against the KC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BUF scored	5.3 #9	8.8 #7	14.1 #7	7.9 #3	7.0 #9	14.9 #3
KC allowed	4.1 #13	6.3 #16	10.4 #14	2.8 #4	4.7 #6	7.4 #4

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.