Bears @ Commanders: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2024)

Sun, Oct 27, 2024, 4:25 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Washington Commanders

Weather at kickoff57°F0 mphgusts 6DryWeather watch ›

Chicago Bears

4-2 · Power #24

final

Final

Washington Commanders

5-2 · Power #10

▲ winner

Closing spread

WSH -1.5

✓ WSH W

Total

46.5

▼ Under · 33 pts

Model before kickoff

CHI 23–25 WSH

✓ WSH (56%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCHI -1.5

CloseWSH -1.5

Total45.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCHI -1.5

3 → WSH

CloseWSH -1.5

3 pts toward Washington Commanders

Total

Open45.5

▲ 1

Close46.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened CHI -1.5 · closed WSH -1.5 · moved 3 toward WSHmodel WSH -3.5

model WSH -3.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 56%, covered 46% (54 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCHI -1.5

CloseWSH -1.5

Total45.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WSH as a 1.5-point home favorite against CHI, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: WSH won 18–15; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 33 points stayed under 46.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 43%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 2.4 against an average line of 2.4; 51.8 points a game (usually 43.2). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	SF vs KC 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & situation	-2.5	18–28	L	U47.5
Loose	GB vs HOU 2024 · Week 7 · loose · similar team ratings & total	-3.5	24–22	L	U47.5
Loose	MIA vs BUF 2024 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation	-2.5	10–31	L	U49.5
Loose	LAC vs CLE 2021 · Week 5 · loose · similar situation & season form	-2.5	47–42	W	O47
Loose	ARI vs IND 2021 · Week 16 · loose · similar situation & team ratings	-3	16–22	L	U48
Loose	BAL vs CIN 2022 · Week 5 · loose · similar situation	-3	19–17	L	U47.5
Loose	KC vs CIN 2022 · Postseason · loose	-2	23–20	W	U48.5
Loose	GB vs LAR 2021 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest & situation	-1	36–28	W	O46.5
Loose	TB vs KC 2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar season form & situation	-2	31–41	L	O47.5
Loose	HOU vs BUF 2024 · Week 5 · loose · similar spread & total	-1.5	23–20	W	U47.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CHI WLWWW	5-1	83%	1-1	2-1
WSH WWWWW	6-1	86%	3-0	3-0

Venue/role: CHI away, as underdog; WSH home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CHI UUOOO	3-3	50%	4-2
WSH OOOOU	5-2	71%	5-2

Stayed under: it needed 28 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 50% of games with totals 43.5–49.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CHI	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%
WSH	5-5 50%	7-3 70%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

CHI 5–10 WSH WSH leads · 15 games since 1999 · CHI has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 5 2023	Chicago Bears 40 @ Washington Commanders 20	WSH -6	CHI W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CHI−0.3 →+0.8▲ 1.1#12

WSH−3.1 →+0.7▲ 3.8#13

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

CHI

Longer bar = better

WSH

#21

Offense

WSH better ▶

Defense

◀ CHI better

#23

+1.0 #4

Turnovers

◀ CHI better

+0.4 #8

65 plays #6

Pace

◀ CHI faster

62 plays #17

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CHI has the ball

Even matchup

	CHI off	WSH def	Edge
Points / game	24.7 #12	21.7 #15	Even
Yards / play	4.67 #28	5.80 #27	Even
EPA / play	−0.04 #22	+0.03 #22	Even
Success rate	41% #21	46% #27	CHI

When WSH has the ball

Even matchup

	WSH off	CHI def	Edge
Points / game	31.1 #1	16.8 #4	Even
Yards / play	6.21 #4	4.98 #5	Even
EPA / play	+0.24 #1	−0.14 #2	Even
Success rate	50% #3	39% #4	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

CHI scoring against the WSH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CHI scored	1.7 #31	9.0 #9	10.7 #19	4.5 #14	9.5 #2	14.0 #6
WSH allowed	4.1 #13	5.6 #11	9.7 #10	4.9 #14	7.1 #22	12.0 #21

WSH scoring against the CHI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WSH scored	5.3 #10	11.1 #2	16.4 #3	7.6 #5	7.1 #10	14.7 #4
CHI allowed	3.8 #10	5.5 #9	9.3 #8	3.3 #6	4.2 #8	7.5 #5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.