Bears @ Cardinals: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2024)

Sun, Nov 3, 2024, 4:05 PM ESTWeek 9 · at Arizona Cardinals

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Chicago Bears

4-3 · Power #24

final

Final

Arizona Cardinals

4-4 · Power #17

▲ winner

Closing spread

ARI -1.5

✓ ARI W

Total

44.5

▼ Under · 38 pts

Model before kickoff

CHI 22–23 ARI

✓ ARI (55%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenARI -1

CloseARI -1.5

Total44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenARI -1

0.5 → ARI

CloseARI -1.5

0.5 pts toward Arizona Cardinals

Total

Open44.5

no move

Close44.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ARI -1 · closed ARI -1.5 · moved 0.5 toward ARImodel ARI -0.5

model ARI -0.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 57%, covered 48% (56 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenARI -1

CloseARI -1.5

Total44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ARI as a 1.5-point home favorite against CHI, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: ARI won 29–9; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 38 points stayed under 44.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 43%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 3.2 against an average line of 2.5; 51.8 points a game (usually 43.2). Of the 4 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ATL vs TB 2024 · Week 5 · very close · similar season form & team ratings	-2.5	36–30	W	O43.5
Very close	IND vs CHI 2024 · Week 3 · very close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	21–16	W	U43.5
Very close	CIN vs PHI 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	17–37	L	O47.5
Close	TEN vs IND 2024 · Week 6 · close	-2.5	17–20	L	U41.5
Close	HOU vs BUF 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & rest	-1.5	23–20	W	U47.5
Close	JAX vs IND 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & total	-3.5	37–34	L	O44.5
Close	LV vs NE 2022 · Week 15 · close · similar situation & season form	-2	30–24	W	O45.5
Loose	CLE vs NE 2022 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-2.5	15–38	L	O43.5
Loose	MIN vs NE 2022 · Week 12 · loose · similar team ratings & season form	-2.5	33–26	W	O41.5
Loose	TEN vs GB 2024 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & spread	-2.5	14–30	L	O36.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CHI LWWWL	5-2	71%	1-2	2-2
ARI LWLWW	5-3	63%	2-2	1-1

Venue/role: CHI away, as underdog; ARI home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CHI UOOOU	3-4	43%	4-3
ARI OUOUO	5-3	63%	4-4

Stayed under: it needed 12 in the 4th quarter and got 5. 49% of games with totals 41.5–47.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CHI	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%
ARI	5-5 50%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

CHI 6–4 ARI CHI leads · 10 games since 2001 · ARI has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 24 2023	Arizona Cardinals 16 @ Chicago Bears 27	CHI -4.5	CHI W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CHI−0.3 →+0.3▲ 0.6#15

ARI−1.7 →−1.7–#24

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

CHI

Longer bar = better

ARI

#21

Offense

ARI better ▶

#12

Defense

◀ CHI better

#28

+0.7 #7

Turnovers

◀ CHI better

+0.1 #14

64 plays #7

Pace

◀ CHI faster

58 plays #29

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CHI has the ball

Advantage: CHI offense

	CHI off	ARI def	Edge
Points / game	23.3 #15	25.6 #24	CHI
Yards / play	4.73 #27	5.95 #28	Even
EPA / play	−0.05 #22	+0.12 #29	CHI
Success rate	41% #20	51% #32	CHI

When ARI has the ball

Advantage: CHI defense

	ARI off	CHI def	Edge
Points / game	22.3 #18	17.0 #4	CHI
Yards / play	5.86 #8	5.27 #9	Even
EPA / play	+0.06 #12	−0.10 #5	CHI
Success rate	47% #8	40% #8	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

CHI scoring against the ARI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CHI scored	1.4 #31	7.7 #14	9.1 #23	4.9 #14	9.3 #2	14.1 #6
ARI allowed	5.1 #20	9.4 #26	14.5 #28	6.0 #24	5.1 #13	11.1 #15

ARI scoring against the CHI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARI scored	5.3 #12	6.3 #20	11.5 #15	4.3 #17	6.5 #16	10.8 #18
CHI allowed	4.1 #14	5.1 #6	9.3 #9	3.3 #5	4.4 #7	7.7 #5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.