Cowboys @ Falcons: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2024)

Sun, Nov 3, 2024, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 9 · at Atlanta Falcons

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Dallas Cowboys

3-4 · Power #22

final

Final

Atlanta Falcons

5-3 · Power #20

▲ winner

Closing spread

ATL -3.5

✓ ATL W

Total

51.5

▼ Under · 48 pts

Model before kickoff

DAL 23–27 ATL

✓ ATL (62%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenATL -2.5

CloseATL -3.5

Total48.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenATL -2.5

1 → ATL

CloseATL -3.5

1 pt toward Atlanta Falcons

Total

Open48.5

▲ 3

Close51.5

Up 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ATL -2.5 · closed ATL -3.5 · moved 1 toward ATLmodel ATL -1.5

model ATL -1.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 68%, covered 54% (104 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 48% (25 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenATL -2.5

CloseATL -3.5

Total48.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ATL as a 3.5-point home favorite against DAL, the favorite won 4, covered 3, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: ATL won 27–21; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 48 points stayed under 51.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 44%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 0.6 against an average line of 3.7; 51.4 points a game (usually 43.8). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	ATL vs SEA 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & total	-2.5	14–34	L	U51.5
Close	PIT vs DAL 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & spread	-2.5	17–20	L	U44.5
Loose	HOU vs JAX 2024 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & situation	-5.5	24–20	L	U46.5
Loose	DET vs SEA 2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & season form	-3.5	45–48	L	O48.5
Loose	IND vs MIA 2024 · Week 7 · loose · similar situation & spread	-3.5	16–10	W	U43.5
Loose	CHI vs DET 2022 · Week 10 · loose · similar rest & season form	-3	30–31	L	O48.5
Loose	DET vs CHI 2022 · Week 17 · loose · similar rest & season form	-4.5	41–10	W	U52.5
Loose	SF vs DAL 2024 · Week 8 · loose · similar season form	-5.5	30–24	W	O47.5
Loose	MIA vs GB 2022 · Week 16 · loose · similar rest & season form	-3.5	20–26	L	U49.5
Loose	CIN vs PHI 2024 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & situation	-2.5	17–37	L	O47.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DAL LLWLL	2-5	29%	2-2	2-3
ATL LWWLW	4-4	50%	1-4	3-3

Venue/role: DAL away, as underdog; ATL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
DAL OUUOO	5-2	71%	3-4
ATL OOOUO	4-4	50%	5-3

Stayed under: it needed 18 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 37% of games with totals 48.5–54.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DAL	5-5 50%	3-7 30%	7-3 70%
ATL	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

DAL 6–6 ATL Series tied · 12 games since 1999 · ATL has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

DAL+2.5 →−0.1▼ 2.6#17

ATL−0.8 →0.0▲ 0.8#16

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

DAL

Longer bar = better

ATL

#23

Offense

ATL better ▶

#28

Defense

ATL better ▶

#22

−1.1 #30

Turnovers

ATL better ▶

0.0 #15

64 plays #9

Pace

◀ DAL faster

62 plays #16

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When DAL has the ball

Even matchup

	DAL off	ATL def	Edge
Points / game	21.4 #22	24.4 #19	Even
Yards / play	5.18 #21	5.39 #17	Even
EPA / play	−0.08 #24	+0.05 #23	Even
Success rate	40% #24	47% #29	DAL

When ATL has the ball

Advantage: ATL offense

	ATL off	DAL def	Edge
Points / game	24.3 #12	28.3 #31	ATL
Yards / play	6.01 #7	5.95 #30	ATL
EPA / play	+0.07 #10	+0.16 #31	ATL
Success rate	48% #7	45% #20	ATL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

DAL scoring against the ATL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DAL scored	3.7 #22	7.4 #16	11.1 #16	2.7 #30	7.6 #7	10.3 #20
ATL allowed	4.6 #16	10.1 #30	14.8 #28	4.3 #11	5.4 #15	9.6 #9

ATL scoring against the DAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ATL scored	4.8 #15	9.9 #4	14.6 #7	4.4 #16	4.5 #27	8.9 #25
DAL allowed	6.7 #30	8.1 #22	14.9 #30	8.7 #32	4.7 #9	13.4 #26

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.