Eagles @ Cowboys: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2024)

Sun, Nov 10, 2024, 4:25 PM ESTWeek 10 · at Dallas Cowboys · Division game

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Philadelphia Eagles

6-2 · Power #2

▲ winner

Final

Dallas Cowboys

3-5 · Power #22

final

Closing spread

PHI -7.5

✓ PHI W

Total

44.5

▼ Under · 40 pts

Model before kickoff

PHI 27–19 DAL

✓ PHI (75%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPHI -6.5

ClosePHI -7.5

Total43.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenPHI -6.5

1 → PHI

ClosePHI -7.5

1 pt toward Philadelphia Eagles

Total

Open43.5

▲ 1

Close44.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened PHI -6.5 · closed PHI -7.5 · moved 1 toward PHImodel PHI -7

model PHI -7

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Crossed 7Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 45% (29 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPHI -6.5

ClosePHI -7.5

Total43.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like PHI as a 7.5-point road favorite at DAL, the favorite won 6, covered 3, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: PHI won 34–6; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 40 points stayed under 44.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 69%

Favorite covered

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 43%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 53%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 6 against an average line of 7.1; 46.6 points a game (usually 46.7). Of the 6 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	KC @ LV 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & season form	-8.5	27–20	L	O42.5
Close	NYJ @ NE 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & rest	-7.5	22–25	L	O41.5
Close	BAL @ CLE 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar season form & rest	-7.5	24–29	L	O44.5
Close	SF @ LAR 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-6.5	24–27	L	O44.5
Loose	CIN @ CLE 2024 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & season form	-5.5	21–14	W	U42.5
Loose	HOU @ NE 2024 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest	-6.5	41–21	W	O39.5
Loose	PHI @ WSH 2023 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & season form	-7	38–31	P	O42.5
Loose	IND @ HOU 2021 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest & situation	-7.5	31–0	W	U45
Loose	TB @ PIT 2022 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & season form	-6.5	18–20	L	U46.5
Loose	PHI @ IND 2022 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest & season form	-7.5	17–16	L	U45.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PHI LLWWL	4-4	50%	3-1	2-4
DAL LWLLL	2-6	25%	0-3	2-4

Venue/role: PHI away, as favorite; DAL home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
PHI OUUOO	4-4	50%	6-2
DAL UUOOU	5-3	63%	3-5

Stayed under: it needed 11 in the 4th quarter and got 6. 49% of games with totals 41.5–47.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PHI	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%
DAL	4-6 40%	3-7 30%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

PHI 29–26 DAL PHI leads · 55 games since 1999 · DAL has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 10 2023	Philadelphia Eagles 13 @ Dallas Cowboys 33	DAL -3.5	DAL W
Nov 5 2023	Dallas Cowboys 23 @ Philadelphia Eagles 28	PHI -3.5	PHI W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

PHI−0.1 →+2.7▲ 2.8#7

DAL+2.5 →+0.2▼ 2.3#14

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

PHI

Longer bar = better

DAL

#10

Offense

◀ PHI better

#22

Defense

◀ PHI better

#28

−0.3 #20

Turnovers

◀ PHI better

−0.9 #30

66 plays #3

Pace

Even

65 plays #5

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When PHI has the ball

Advantage: PHI offense

	PHI off	DAL def	Edge
Points / game	24.9 #11	28.1 #31	PHI
Yards / play	5.76 #10	5.91 #29	PHI
EPA / play	+0.10 #6	+0.15 #31	PHI
Success rate	45% #12	45% #21	PHI

When DAL has the ball

Advantage: PHI defense

	DAL off	PHI def	Edge
Points / game	21.4 #20	19.4 #9	PHI
Yards / play	5.17 #22	5.02 #5	PHI
EPA / play	−0.07 #23	−0.02 #15	PHI
Success rate	41% #23	39% #6	PHI

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

PHI scoring against the DAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PHI scored	0.9 #32	9.3 #6	10.1 #19	7.0 #5	7.8 #7	14.8 #5
DAL allowed	6.8 #32	8.0 #23	14.8 #31	8.5 #32	4.9 #9	13.4 #26

DAL scoring against the PHI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DAL scored	3.6 #21	7.4 #15	11.0 #16	2.8 #29	7.6 #8	10.4 #20
PHI allowed	3.8 #10	5.6 #7	9.4 #7	5.6 #22	4.4 #4	10.0 #12

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.