Commanders @ Eagles: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2024)

Thu, Nov 14, 2024, 8:15 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Philadelphia Eagles · Division game

Weather at kickoff44°F7 mphgusts 15DryWeather watch ›

Washington Commanders

7-3 · Power #10

final

Final

Philadelphia Eagles

7-2 · Power #2

▲ winner

Closing spread

PHI -4.5

✓ PHI W

Total

49.5

▼ Under · 44 pts

Model before kickoff

WSH 22–26 PHI

✓ PHI (66%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPHI -3.5

ClosePHI -4.5

Total49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenPHI -3.5

1 → PHI

ClosePHI -4.5

1 pt toward Philadelphia Eagles

Total

Open49.5

no move

Close49.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened PHI -3.5 · closed PHI -4.5 · moved 1 toward PHImodel PHI -4.5 matches the line

model PHI -4.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 72%, covered 53% (67 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 47% (30 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPHI -3.5

ClosePHI -4.5

Total49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like PHI as a 4.5-point home favorite against WSH, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: PHI won 26–18; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 44 points stayed under 49.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 62%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 44%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 0.1 against an average line of 4.4; 52.7 points a game (usually 44.2). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	GB vs HOU 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & team ratings	-3.5	24–22	L	U47.5
Close	DET vs SEA 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & total	-4.5	42–29	W	O47.5
Close	MIA vs BUF 2024 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & total	-2.5	10–31	L	U49.5
Close	BAL vs WSH 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar season form & team ratings	-7.5	30–23	L	O50.5
Close	BAL vs CIN 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & rest	-5.5	35–34	L	O52.5
Close	KC vs NO 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & situation	-5.5	26–13	W	U43.5
Loose	MIN vs IND 2024 · Week 9 · loose	-5.5	21–13	W	U46.5
Loose	SF vs KC 2024 · Week 7 · loose · similar situation & total	-2.5	18–28	L	U47.5
Loose	CIN vs PHI 2024 · Week 8 · loose · similar situation & total	-2.5	17–37	L	O47.5
Loose	DAL vs PHI 2022 · Week 16 · loose · similar season form & team ratings	-4.5	40–34	W	O48

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WSH WWWWL	8-2	80%	4-1	3-1
PHI LWWLW	5-4	56%	0-3	3-4

Venue/role: WSH away, as underdog; PHI home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WSH OUUOO	7-3	70%	7-3
PHI UUOOU	4-5	44%	7-2

Stayed under: it needed 34 in the 4th quarter and got 28. 51% of games with totals 46.5–52.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WSH	7-3 70%	8-2 80%	7-3 70%
PHI	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

WSH 21–35 PHI PHI leads · 56 games since 1999 · PHI has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 29 2023	Philadelphia Eagles 38 @ Washington Commanders 31	PHI -7	P
Oct 1 2023	Washington Commanders 31 @ Philadelphia Eagles 34	PHI -8.5	WSH W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WSH−3.1 →+1.0▲ 4.1#12

PHI−0.1 →+3.8▲ 3.9#6

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

WSH

Longer bar = better

PHI

Offense

◀ WSH better

#10

#19

Defense

PHI better ▶

+0.6 #8

Turnovers

◀ WSH better

+0.1 #14

62 plays #15

Pace

PHI faster ▶

65 plays #3

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WSH has the ball

Even matchup

	WSH off	PHI def	Edge
Points / game	29.0 #3	17.9 #6	Even
Yards / play	6.04 #4	4.76 #2	Even
EPA / play	+0.19 #2	−0.10 #5	Even
Success rate	49% #3	38% #3	Even

When PHI has the ball

Advantage: PHI offense

	PHI off	WSH def	Edge
Points / game	25.9 #8	21.7 #12	Even
Yards / play	5.71 #10	5.50 #21	PHI
EPA / play	+0.08 #8	+0.01 #20	PHI
Success rate	46% #13	45% #21	PHI

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

WSH scoring against the PHI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WSH scored	5.7 #6	10.5 #2	16.2 #2	6.9 #6	5.9 #17	12.8 #7
PHI allowed	3.7 #9	5.3 #7	9.0 #6	5.0 #15	3.9 #4	8.9 #8

PHI scoring against the WSH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PHI scored	1.6 #30	9.0 #7	10.6 #18	7.8 #5	7.6 #7	15.3 #2
WSH allowed	3.6 #7	5.3 #6	8.9 #5	5.1 #16	7.7 #24	12.8 #23

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.