Raiders @ Dolphins: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2024)

Sun, Nov 17, 2024, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Miami Dolphins

Weather at kickoff82°F7 mphgusts 19DryWeather watch ›

Las Vegas Raiders

2-7 · Power #27

final

Final

Miami Dolphins

3-6 · Power #18

▲ winner

Closing spread

MIA -8.5

✓ MIA W

Total

43.5

▲ Over · 53 pts

Model before kickoff

LV 18–26 MIA

✓ MIA (76%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIA -6.5

CloseMIA -8.5

Total45.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMIA -6.5

2 → MIA

CloseMIA -8.5

2 pts toward Miami Dolphins

Total

Open45.5

▼ 2

Close43.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MIA -6.5 · closed MIA -8.5 · moved 2 toward MIAmodel MIA -2.5

model MIA -2.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 6.5–10.5 since 2023: won 74%, covered 46% (65 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7Too few earlier games to rateⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIA -6.5

CloseMIA -8.5

Total45.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MIA as an 8.5-point home favorite against LV, the favorite won 6, covered 2, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: MIA won 34–19; the favorite covered, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 53 points went over 43.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 77%

Favorite covered

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 45%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 54%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5.9 against an average line of 7.4; 47.7 points a game (usually 46.8). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	BAL vs LV 2024 · Week 2 · close · similar total & season form	-8.5	23–26	L	O42.5
Close	LAR vs LV 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar season form & situation	-7.5	20–15	L	U43.5
Close	CIN vs LV 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & season form	-7.5	41–24	W	O44.5
Close	SEA vs NYG 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & spread	-7.5	20–29	L	O41.5
Loose	CIN vs WSH 2024 · Week 3 · loose · similar season form	-7.5	33–38	L	O46.5
Loose	PHI vs CLE 2024 · Week 6 · loose · similar situation & season form	-8.5	20–16	L	U42.5
Loose	ATL vs DET 2021 · Week 16 · loose · similar season form & situation	-7.5	20–16	L	U42.5
Loose	PHI vs ATL 2024 · Week 2 · loose	-5.5	21–22	L	U46.5
Loose	MIA vs PIT 2022 · Week 7 · loose · similar season form & situation	-7	16–10	L	U44
Loose	NE vs NYJ 2021 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & situation	-7	54–13	W	O42.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LV LLWWL	4-5	44%	2-3	4-4
MIA WLLWW	3-6	33%	0-4	1-4

Venue/role: LV away, as underdog; MIA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LV OOUOO	6-3	67%	2-7
MIA UUOOU	3-6	33%	3-6

Went over in Q4. Of 92 earlier overs in games with totals 40.5–46.5, 20% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LV	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%
MIA	3-7 30%	3-7 30%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

LV 5–13 MIA MIA leads · 18 games since 1999 · LV has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 19 2023	Las Vegas Raiders 13 @ Miami Dolphins 20	MIA -13.5	LV W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LV−0.8 →−4.3▼ 3.5#31

MIA+1.5 →−1.0▼ 2.5#20

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

Longer bar = better

MIA

#28

Offense

MIA better ▶

#25

#22

Defense

MIA better ▶

#16

−1.6 #32

Turnovers

MIA better ▶

−0.3 #21

61 plays #23

Pace

MIA faster ▶

63 plays #11

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LV has the ball

Advantage: MIA defense

	LV off	MIA def	Edge
Points / game	18.7 #25	22.4 #18	MIA
Yards / play	4.60 #29	5.27 #12	MIA
EPA / play	−0.21 #32	−0.02 #15	MIA
Success rate	39% #27	43% #17	MIA

When MIA has the ball

Even matchup

	MIA off	LV def	Edge
Points / game	16.3 #30	27.9 #30	Even
Yards / play	4.98 #23	5.27 #11	LV
EPA / play	−0.12 #27	+0.03 #21	LV
Success rate	41% #18	46% #26	MIA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

LV scoring against the MIA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LV scored	5.0 #12	3.1 #32	8.1 #27	2.6 #30	8.0 #7	10.6 #18
MIA allowed	4.6 #20	6.1 #11	10.7 #14	5.8 #24	6.0 #18	11.8 #19

MIA scoring against the LV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIA scored	4.4 #17	3.2 #31	7.7 #28	3.7 #21	5.0 #22	8.7 #24
LV allowed	4.4 #19	8.8 #27	13.2 #25	5.9 #25	8.8 #27	14.7 #28

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.