Browns @ Saints: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2024)

Sun, Nov 17, 2024, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at New Orleans Saints

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Cleveland Browns

2-7 · Power #28

final

Final

New Orleans Saints

3-7 · Power #25

▲ winner

Closing spread

CLE -1.5

✓ NO W

Total

43.5

▲ Over · 49 pts

Model before kickoff

CLE 23–22 NO

✗ CLE (55%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNO -2.5

CloseCLE -1.5

Total43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenNO -2.5

4 → CLE

CloseCLE -1.5

4 pts toward Cleveland Browns

Total

Open43.5

no move

Close43.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened NO -2.5 · closed CLE -1.5 · moved 4 toward CLEmodel NO -0.5

model NO -0.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 60%, covered 60% (43 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNO -2.5

CloseCLE -1.5

Total43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CLE as a 1.5-point road favorite at NO, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: NO won 35–14 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 49 points went over 43.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 42%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 2.1 against an average line of 1.8; 41.1 points a game (usually 43.2). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NYJ @ ARI 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & spread	-1.5	6–31	L	U46.5
Close	LAR @ SEA 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar season form & team ratings	-2	26–20	W	U48.5
Close	ATL @ TB 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar spread	-0.5	31–26	W	O47.5
Loose	CLE @ LV 2024 · Week 4 · loose	-2.5	16–20	L	U38.5
Loose	NYJ @ SEA 2022 · Week 17 · loose · similar situation	-2	6–23	L	U43
Loose	LV @ CLE 2021 · Week 15 · loose · similar season form & situation	-2.5	16–14	L	U42
Loose	JAX @ TB 2023 · Week 16 · loose	-1.5	12–30	L	U43
Loose	TEN @ WSH 2022 · Week 5 · loose	-3	21–17	W	U43
Loose	BAL @ DAL 2024 · Week 3 · loose · similar season form	-1.5	28–25	W	O47.5
Loose	GB @ MIN 2023 · Week 17 · loose · similar situation	-1	33–10	W	O42.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CLE LWLWL	3-6	33%	2-2	0-3
NO LLLLW	4-6	40%	2-3	3-4

Venue/role: CLE away, as favorite; NO home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CLE OUUOU	3-6	33%	2-7
NO OOUOU	6-4	60%	3-7

Went over in Q4. Of 92 earlier overs in games with totals 40.5–46.5, 20% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CLE	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%
NO	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

CLE 4–4 NO Series tied · 8 games since 1999 · NO has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CLE+1.1 →−2.7▼ 3.8#26

NO+0.5 →−1.8▼ 2.3#25

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

CLE

Longer bar = better

#31

Offense

NO better ▶

#18

#16

Defense

◀ CLE better

#24

−0.8 #29

Turnovers

NO better ▶

+0.4 #10

65 plays #5

Pace

◀ CLE faster

62 plays #18

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CLE has the ball

Advantage: NO defense

	CLE off	NO def	Edge
Points / game	16.4 #29	24.6 #24	NO
Yards / play	4.22 #32	6.03 #32	Even
EPA / play	−0.15 #31	+0.01 #19	NO
Success rate	37% #32	45% #22	NO

When NO has the ball

Even matchup

	NO off	CLE def	Edge
Points / game	22.7 #16	23.7 #21	NO
Yards / play	5.40 #16	5.50 #21	NO
EPA / play	−0.05 #19	0.00 #17	Even
Success rate	41% #21	40% #6	CLE

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

CLE scoring against the NO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CLE scored	3.3 #24	3.4 #30	6.8 #32	3.0 #27	6.7 #13	9.7 #20
NO allowed	3.7 #9	8.1 #24	11.8 #21	5.4 #20	7.4 #23	12.8 #23

NO scoring against the CLE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NO scored	4.9 #13	10.5 #2	15.4 #2	2.5 #31	4.8 #27	7.3 #31
CLE allowed	3.9 #10	10.0 #28	13.9 #28	6.8 #30	3.0 #1	9.8 #14

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.