Jets @ Cardinals: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2024)

Sun, Nov 10, 2024, 4:25 PM ESTWeek 10 · at Arizona Cardinals

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

New York Jets

3-6 · Power #23

final

Final

Arizona Cardinals

5-4 · Power #17

▲ winner

Closing spread

NYJ -1.5

✓ ARI W

Total

46.5

▼ Under · 37 pts

Model before kickoff

NYJ 23–22 ARI

✗ NYJ (55%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenARI -1.5

CloseNYJ -1.5

Total45.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenARI -1.5

3 → NYJ

CloseNYJ -1.5

3 pts toward New York Jets

Total

Open45.5

▲ 1

Close46.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ARI -1.5 · closed NYJ -1.5 · moved 3 toward NYJmodel ARI -1

model ARI -1

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 62%, covered 62% (42 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenARI -1.5

CloseNYJ -1.5

Total45.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NYJ as a 1.5-point road favorite at ARI, the favorite won 7, covered 7, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: ARI won 31–6 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 37 points stayed under 46.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 42%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 1.3 against an average line of 1.5; 47.5 points a game (usually 43.2). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	LAR @ SEA 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2	26–20	W	U48.5
Close	ATL @ TB 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar season form & spread	-0.5	31–26	W	O47.5
Close	BAL @ DAL 2024 · Week 3 · close	-1.5	28–25	W	O47.5
Loose	HOU @ IND 2023 · Week 18 · loose · similar situation & season form	-1.5	23–19	W	U48
Loose	NYJ @ PIT 2024 · Week 7 · loose · similar situation & spread	-2.5	15–37	L	O40.5
Loose	NO @ IND 2023 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-2	38–27	W	O44
Loose	NYJ @ SEA 2022 · Week 17 · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-2	6–23	L	U43
Loose	JAX @ HOU 2023 · Week 12 · loose · similar situation & team ratings	-1	24–21	W	U48
Loose	CLE @ ATL 2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-1	20–23	L	U48.5
Loose	GB @ MIN 2023 · Week 17 · loose · similar situation & season form	-1	33–10	W	O42.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NYJ LLLLW	3-6	33%	1-3	3-3
ARI WLWWW	6-3	67%	3-2	4-2

Venue/role: NYJ away, as favorite; ARI home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NYJ UOOOU	4-5	44%	3-6
ARI UOUOU	5-4	56%	5-4

Stayed under: it needed 10 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 51% of games with totals 43.5–49.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NYJ	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%
ARI	5-5 50%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

NYJ 4–3 ARI NYJ leads · 7 games since 1999 · ARI has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NYJ−1.2 →−0.6▲ 0.6#19

ARI−1.7 →−0.9▲ 0.8#22

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

NYJ

Longer bar = better

ARI

#21

Offense

ARI better ▶

#12

Defense

◀ NYJ better

#25

−0.3 #22

Turnovers

ARI better ▶

−0.1 #18

60 plays #24

Pace

◀ NYJ faster

58 plays #30

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NYJ has the ball

Even matchup

	NYJ off	ARI def	Edge
Points / game	19.0 #25	23.8 #19	ARI
Yards / play	5.13 #23	5.65 #21	Even
EPA / play	−0.01 #17	+0.08 #29	NYJ
Success rate	42% #18	48% #32	NYJ

When ARI has the ball

Advantage: NYJ defense

	ARI off	NYJ def	Edge
Points / game	23.0 #16	20.3 #10	NYJ
Yards / play	5.89 #8	4.64 #1	NYJ
EPA / play	+0.04 #12	−0.05 #10	Even
Success rate	46% #10	39% #2	NYJ

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

NYJ scoring against the ARI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NYJ scored	4.1 #19	5.4 #22	9.6 #21	4.3 #16	5.1 #22	9.4 #22
ARI allowed	4.6 #20	9.3 #27	13.9 #27	5.3 #18	4.6 #6	9.9 #11

ARI scoring against the NYJ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARI scored	5.4 #7	7.1 #17	12.6 #12	4.1 #18	6.3 #15	10.4 #19
NYJ allowed	4.1 #14	6.2 #13	10.3 #12	4.9 #12	5.1 #14	10.0 #12

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.