Dolphins @ Rams: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2024)

Mon, Nov 11, 2024, 8:15 PM ESTWeek 10 · at Los Angeles Rams

Weather at kickoff60°F9 mphgusts 16DryWeather watch ›

Miami Dolphins

2-6 · Power #18

▲ winner

Final

Los Angeles Rams

4-4 · Power #16

final

Closing spread

LAR -2.5

✓ MIA W

Total

50.5

▼ Under · 38 pts

Model before kickoff

MIA 21–24 LAR

✗ LAR (59%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLAR -2.5

CloseLAR -2.5

Total50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenLAR -2.5

no move

CloseLAR -2.5

No change since the open

Total

Open50.5

no move

Close50.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened LAR -2.5 · unchangedmodel LAR -3.5

model LAR -3.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 68%, covered 54% (106 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLAR -2.5

CloseLAR -2.5

Total50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LAR as a 2.5-point home favorite against MIA, the favorite won 4, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: MIA won 23–15 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 38 points stayed under 50.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 44%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 3.4 against an average line of 3.1; 46.4 points a game (usually 43.9). Of the 4 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	ATL vs SEA 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	14–34	L	U51.5
Close	ATL vs DAL 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar season form & rest	-3.5	27–21	W	U51.5
Close	IND vs MIA 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar team ratings & spread	-3.5	16–10	W	U43.5
Close	CIN vs PHI 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	17–37	L	O47.5
Close	WSH vs CLE 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	34–13	W	O43.5
Loose	LV vs WSH 2021 · Week 13 · loose · similar team ratings & season form	-1.5	15–17	L	U48.5
Loose	MIA vs ARI 2024 · Week 8 · loose · similar situation & rest	-4.5	27–28	L	O46.5
Loose	ARI vs WSH 2024 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & total	-3.5	14–42	L	O48.5
Loose	CHI vs DET 2022 · Week 10 · loose · similar rest & situation	-3	30–31	L	O48.5
Loose	IND vs CHI 2024 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-2.5	21–16	W	U43.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIA LWLLW	2-6	25%	2-2	1-2
LAR LLLWW	3-5	38%	2-2	1-1

Venue/role: MIA away, as underdog; LAR home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIA OUUOO	3-5	38%	2-6
LAR OUUOU	4-4	50%	4-4

Stayed under: it needed 28 in the 4th quarter and got 15. 47% of games with totals 47.5–53.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MIA	2-8 20%	2-8 20%	3-7 30%
LAR	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

MIA 6–1 LAR MIA leads · 7 games since 2001 · MIA has won the last 6 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MIA+1.5 →−1.3▼ 2.8#24

LAR+0.7 →−0.6▼ 1.3#18

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

MIA

Longer bar = better

LAR

#25

Offense

LAR better ▶

#16

#17

Defense

◀ MIA better

#23

−0.4 #21

Turnovers

LAR better ▶

+0.3 #13

65 plays #6

Pace

◀ MIA faster

63 plays #13

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MIA has the ball

Even matchup

	MIA off	LAR def	Edge
Points / game	15.5 #32	24.3 #22	LAR
Yards / play	5.03 #22	5.78 #27	MIA
EPA / play	−0.11 #27	+0.02 #20	LAR
Success rate	42% #18	45% #21	Even

When LAR has the ball

Even matchup

	LAR off	MIA def	Edge
Points / game	21.3 #18	23.4 #19	Even
Yards / play	5.25 #18	5.34 #14	Even
EPA / play	−0.03 #16	+0.01 #18	Even
Success rate	47% #10	43% #16	LAR

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

MIA scoring against the LAR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIA scored	4.1 #18	3.3 #31	7.4 #31	3.3 #23	4.9 #26	8.1 #28
LAR allowed	6.1 #30	6.5 #16	12.6 #23	6.4 #26	4.5 #6	10.9 #17

LAR scoring against the MIA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LAR scored	1.6 #30	6.3 #21	7.9 #28	5.9 #12	6.8 #12	12.6 #10
MIA allowed	5.1 #25	6.1 #11	11.3 #17	6.5 #29	5.6 #18	12.1 #19

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.