Cardinals @ Dolphins: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2024)

Sun, Oct 27, 2024, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Miami Dolphins

Weather at kickoff81°F11 mphgusts 22DryWeather watch ›

Arizona Cardinals

3-4 · Power #17

▲ winner

Final

Miami Dolphins

2-4 · Power #18

final

Closing spread

MIA -4.5

✓ ARI W

Total

46.5

▲ Over · 55 pts

Model before kickoff

ARI 20–24 MIA

✗ MIA (64%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIA -2.5

CloseMIA -4.5

Total46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMIA -2.5

2 → MIA

CloseMIA -4.5

2 pts toward Miami Dolphins

Total

Open46.5

no move

Close46.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MIA -2.5 · closed MIA -4.5 · moved 2 toward MIAmodel ARI -0.5

model ARI -0.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 70%, covered 54% (60 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3Too few earlier games to rateⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIA -2.5

CloseMIA -4.5

Total46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MIA as a 4.5-point home favorite against ARI, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: ARI won 28–27 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 55 points went over 46.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 62%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 44%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 8.3 against an average line of 3.3; 45.9 points a game (usually 44.1). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	JAX vs IND 2024 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	37–34	L	O44.5
Close	IND vs CHI 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-2.5	21–16	W	U43.5
Close	TEN vs IND 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar situation	-2.5	17–20	L	U41.5
Close	ARI vs LAR 2024 · Week 2 · close · similar total & rest	-1.5	41–10	W	O47.5
Close	CHI vs LAR 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	24–18	W	O40.5
Loose	ATL vs TB 2024 · Week 5 · loose · similar team ratings	-2.5	36–30	W	O43.5
Loose	TEN vs IND 2021 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & season form	-4.5	25–16	W	U47
Loose	IND vs TEN 2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-4	17–24	L	U43.5
Loose	NE vs DET 2022 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & situation	-3	29–0	W	U47
Loose	HOU vs JAX 2024 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & total	-5.5	24–20	L	U46.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ARI LLWLW	4-3	57%	2-1	3-2
MIA LLLWL	1-5	17%	0-3	1-3

Venue/role: ARI away, as underdog; MIA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ARI UOUOU	4-3	57%	3-4
MIA UUOUU	1-5	17%	2-4

Went over in Q4. Of 69 earlier overs in games with totals 43.5–49.5, 25% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ARI	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%
MIA	3-7 30%	2-8 20%	2-8 20%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

ARI 4–3 MIA ARI leads · 7 games since 1999 · ARI has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ARI−1.7 →−2.0▼ 0.3#25

MIA+1.5 →−1.3▼ 2.8#22

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

ARI

Longer bar = better

MIA

#12

Offense

◀ ARI better

#30

#29

Defense

MIA better ▶

#10

+0.1 #15

Turnovers

◀ ARI better

−0.5 #26

57 plays #30

Pace

MIA faster ▶

66 plays #1

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ARI has the ball

Even matchup

	ARI off	MIA def	Edge
Points / game	21.4 #19	21.5 #14	MIA
Yards / play	5.80 #8	5.14 #6	Even
EPA / play	+0.02 #12	−0.07 #11	Even
Success rate	46% #8	40% #8	Even

When MIA has the ball

Even matchup

	MIA off	ARI def	Edge
Points / game	11.7 #32	25.4 #25	ARI
Yards / play	4.70 #27	5.96 #30	Even
EPA / play	−0.23 #32	+0.11 #29	Even
Success rate	38% #30	51% #32	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

ARI scoring against the MIA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARI scored	6.0 #5	6.1 #18	12.1 #13	3.3 #23	6.0 #18	9.3 #22
MIA allowed	6.3 #28	6.5 #15	12.8 #21	4.5 #14	4.2 #7	8.7 #8

MIA scoring against the ARI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIA scored	3.3 #22	2.7 #32	6.0 #32	2.7 #29	3.0 #29	5.7 #31
ARI allowed	4.4 #19	10.3 #30	14.7 #29	5.9 #23	4.9 #12	10.7 #14

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.