Vikings @ Rams: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2024)

Thu, Oct 24, 2024, 8:15 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Los Angeles Rams

Weather at kickoff73°F12 mphgusts 21DryWeather watch ›

Minnesota Vikings

5-1 · Power #8

final

Final

Los Angeles Rams

2-4 · Power #16

▲ winner

Closing spread

MIN -2.5

✓ LAR W

Total

46.5

▲ Over · 50 pts

Model before kickoff

MIN 24–21 LAR

✗ MIN (59%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIN -3

CloseMIN -2.5

Total46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMIN -3

0.5 → LAR

CloseMIN -2.5

0.5 pts toward Los Angeles Rams

Total

Open46.5

no move

Close46.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MIN -3 · closed MIN -2.5 · moved 0.5 toward LARmodel MIN -2

model MIN -2

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 64%, covered 54% (66 games)ⓘ

Moved off 3Too few earlier games to rateⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIN -3

CloseMIN -2.5

Total46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MIN as a 2.5-point road favorite at LAR, the favorite won 7, covered 7, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: LAR won 30–20 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 50 points went over 46.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 45%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 1.9 against an average line of 2.6; 48.3 points a game (usually 43.9). Of the 4 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	LAC @ ARI 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar team ratings & spread	-1.5	15–17	L	U44.5
Very close	GB @ LAR 2024 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	24–19	W	U49.5
Close	KC @ ATL 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar total & spread	-3.5	22–17	W	U46.5
Close	PIT @ IND 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar season form & team ratings	-2.5	24–27	L	O40.5
Close	BAL @ CIN 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	41–38	W	O47.5
Close	SF @ SEA 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	36–24	W	O48.5
Close	BUF @ NYJ 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & spread	-1.5	23–20	W	O42.5
Loose	NO @ WSH 2021 · Week 5 · loose · similar situation & team ratings	-1.5	33–22	W	O43.5
Loose	PHI @ WSH 2021 · Week 17 · loose · similar team ratings & situation	-3.5	20–16	W	U45
Loose	CIN @ CLE 2022 · Week 8 · loose · similar team ratings & situation	-3	13–32	L	U45.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIN WWWWL	5-1	83%	2-0	1-1
LAR LWLLL	1-5	17%	1-2	1-4

Venue/role: MIN away, as favorite; LAR home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIN UUOUO	2-4	33%	5-1
LAR OOOUU	3-3	50%	2-4

Went over in Q4. Of 68 earlier overs in games with totals 43.5–49.5, 25% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MIN	5-5 50%	5-4-1 56%	6-4 60%
LAR	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

MIN 6–8 LAR LAR leads · 14 games since 1999 · LAR has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MIN−0.1 →+2.5▲ 2.6#7

LAR+0.7 →−1.5▼ 2.2#23

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

MIN

Longer bar = better

LAR

#12

Offense

◀ MIN better

#18

Defense

◀ MIN better

#26

+0.7 #7

Turnovers

◀ MIN better

+0.2 #14

58 plays #28

Pace

LAR faster ▶

61 plays #20

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MIN has the ball

Advantage: MIN offense

	MIN off	LAR def	Edge
Points / game	28.0 #6	25.7 #25	MIN
Yards / play	5.76 #10	5.83 #27	MIN
EPA / play	0.00 #16	+0.06 #26	MIN
Success rate	44% #14	46% #26	MIN

When LAR has the ball

Advantage: MIN defense

	LAR off	MIN def	Edge
Points / game	19.0 #23	17.8 #6	MIN
Yards / play	5.12 #20	5.12 #6	MIN
EPA / play	−0.06 #23	−0.17 #2	MIN
Success rate	48% #6	38% #3	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

MIN scoring against the LAR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIN scored	9.7 #1	6.3 #18	16.0 #5	5.8 #10	6.2 #16	12.0 #12
LAR allowed	5.8 #26	6.5 #14	12.3 #20	8.0 #32	4.3 #8	12.3 #22

LAR scoring against the MIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LAR scored	1.0 #31	6.7 #17	7.7 #28	5.0 #14	6.3 #13	11.3 #16
MIN allowed	0.5 #1	7.0 #17	7.5 #2	3.3 #7	7.0 #21	10.3 #13

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.