Packers @ Jaguars: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2024)

Sun, Oct 27, 2024, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Jacksonville Jaguars

Weather at kickoff80°F2 mphgusts 9DryWeather watch ›

Green Bay Packers

5-2 · Power #5

▲ winner

Final

Jacksonville Jaguars

2-5 · Power #29

final

Closing spread

GB -3.5

✓ JAX W

Total

49.5

▲ Over · 57 pts

Model before kickoff

GB 27–23 JAX

✓ GB (63%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenGB -5.5

CloseGB -3.5

Total49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenGB -5.5

2 → JAX

CloseGB -3.5

2 pts toward Jacksonville Jaguars

Total

Open49.5

no move

Close49.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened GB -5.5 · closed GB -3.5 · moved 2 toward JAXmodel GB -5.5

model GB -5.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 68%, covered 58% (62 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenGB -5.5

CloseGB -3.5

Total49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like GB as a 3.5-point road favorite at JAX, the favorite won 8, covered 8, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: GB won 30–27; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 57 points went over 49.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 43%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5.9 against an average line of 3.2; 50.1 points a game (usually 43.8). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	GB @ LAR 2024 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	24–19	W	U49.5
Close	KC @ ATL 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	22–17	W	U46.5
Close	LAC @ ARI 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & situation	-1.5	15–17	L	U44.5
Close	BAL @ CIN 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	41–38	W	O47.5
Loose	DET @ DAL 2024 · Week 6 · loose · similar situation	-3.5	47–9	W	O52.5
Loose	SF @ SEA 2024 · Week 6 · loose	-3.5	36–24	W	O48.5
Loose	PHI @ WSH 2021 · Week 17 · loose · similar rest & season form	-3.5	20–16	W	U45
Loose	DAL @ WSH 2021 · Week 14 · loose · similar season form	-4.5	27–20	W	U48
Loose	CIN @ CLE 2022 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & situation	-3	13–32	L	U45.5
Loose	DAL @ NE 2021 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & situation	-3.5	35–29	W	O50.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GB WLWWL	4-3	57%	2-0	2-2
JAX LWLLW	3-4	43%	0-2	2-1

Venue/role: GB away, as favorite; JAX home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
GB OOUOU	4-3	57%	5-2
JAX OUOOO	4-3	57%	2-5

Went over in Q4. Of 43 earlier overs in games with totals 46.5–52.5, 28% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GB	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%
JAX	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

GB 5–2 JAX GB leads · 7 games since 2001 · GB has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

GB+0.5 →+2.9▲ 2.4#6

JAX+0.2 →−2.6▼ 2.8#27

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

Longer bar = better

JAX

#10

Offense

◀ GB better

#17

#12

Defense

◀ GB better

#28

+0.9 #6

Turnovers

◀ GB better

−0.6 #27

63 plays #14

Pace

◀ GB faster

58 plays #27

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When GB has the ball

Advantage: GB offense

	GB off	JAX def	Edge
Points / game	26.6 #7	27.7 #30	GB
Yards / play	6.07 #6	5.96 #29	GB
EPA / play	+0.06 #9	+0.18 #32	GB
Success rate	42% #17	43% #19	Even

When JAX has the ball

Even matchup

	JAX off	GB def	Edge
Points / game	20.7 #21	20.4 #10	GB
Yards / play	5.60 #14	5.15 #7	GB
EPA / play	+0.01 #16	−0.10 #6	GB
Success rate	42% #15	46% #25	JAX

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

GB scoring against the JAX defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GB scored	6.7 #3	8.1 #11	14.9 #7	6.4 #8	5.3 #22	11.7 #15
JAX allowed	5.9 #26	9.1 #26	15.0 #30	2.9 #5	9.9 #31	12.7 #25

JAX scoring against the GB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JAX scored	2.9 #25	7.7 #13	10.6 #19	5.4 #10	4.7 #24	10.1 #18
GB allowed	3.4 #6	10.0 #28	13.4 #24	3.9 #9	3.1 #3	7.0 #5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.