Ravens @ Bengals: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2024)

Sun, Oct 6, 2024, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Cincinnati Bengals · Division game

Weather at kickoff80°F12 mphgusts 25DryWindy Over 46% of 93 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Baltimore Ravens

2-2 · Power #1

▲ winner

Final

Cincinnati Bengals

1-3 · Power #14

final

Closing spread

BAL -2.5

✓ BAL W

Total

47.5

▲ Over · 79 pts

Model before kickoff

BAL 25–22 CIN

✓ BAL (60%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBAL -3

CloseBAL -2.5

Total50.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBAL -3

0.5 → CIN

CloseBAL -2.5

0.5 pts toward Cincinnati Bengals

Total

Open50.5

▼ 3

Close47.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BAL -3 · closed BAL -2.5 · moved 0.5 toward CINmodel BAL -4

model BAL -4

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 58%, covered 46% (53 games)ⓘ

Moved off 3Too few earlier games to rateⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBAL -3

CloseBAL -2.5

Total50.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BAL as a 2.5-point road favorite at CIN, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: BAL won 41–38; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 79 points went over 47.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 44%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 0.4 against an average line of 2.8; 48.6 points a game (usually 43.7). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	CIN @ CLE 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar season form & situation	-3	13–32	L	U45.5
Close	PHI @ TB 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & season form	-0.5	16–33	L	O43.5
Loose	LAR @ MIN 2021 · Week 16 · loose · similar season form & team ratings	-3	30–23	W	O48.5
Loose	KC @ ATL 2024 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & season form	-3.5	22–17	W	U46.5
Loose	CIN @ TB 2022 · Week 15 · loose · similar rest & season form	-3	34–23	W	O47.5
Loose	LAR @ SF 2021 · Week 10 · loose · similar season form & rest	-4	10–31	L	U50
Loose	BAL @ LAC 2023 · Week 12 · loose · similar team ratings	-3	20–10	W	U49
Loose	DAL @ TB 2022 · Postseason · loose · similar rest & season form	-3	31–14	W	U45.5
Loose	KC @ LAC 2021 · Week 15 · loose · similar season form & situation	-3	34–28	W	O50
Loose	GB @ MIN 2021 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest & season form	-1.5	31–34	L	O47.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BAL LLWW	2-2	50%	1-1	2-1
CIN LWLW	2-2	50%	0-2	1-0

Venue/role: BAL away, as favorite; CIN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BAL OOOU	3-1	75%	2-2
CIN UOOO	3-1	75%	1-3

Went over in Q4. Of 50 earlier overs in games with totals 44.5–50.5, 26% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BAL	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	5-4-1 56%
CIN	5-5 50%	5-4-1 56%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

BAL 30–25 CIN BAL leads · 55 games since 1999 · BAL has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 16 2023	Cincinnati Bengals 20 @ Baltimore Ravens 34	BAL -3.5	BAL W
Sep 17 2023	Baltimore Ravens 27 @ Cincinnati Bengals 24	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BAL+3.1 →+4.7▲ 1.6#1

CIN−0.2 →−0.6▼ 0.4#18

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

BAL

Longer bar = better

CIN

Offense

◀ BAL better

#14

Defense

◀ BAL better

#24

+0.3 #12

Turnovers

◀ BAL better

0.0 #16

63 plays #11

Pace

◀ BAL faster

58 plays #27

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BAL has the ball

Advantage: BAL offense

	BAL off	CIN def	Edge
Points / game	26.5 #5	26.0 #27	BAL
Yards / play	6.84 #1	5.23 #14	BAL
EPA / play	+0.17 #3	+0.09 #25	BAL
Success rate	50% #4	49% #29	BAL

When CIN has the ball

Advantage: CIN offense

	CIN off	BAL def	Edge
Points / game	25.5 #9	22.0 #17	CIN
Yards / play	5.86 #10	5.32 #15	CIN
EPA / play	+0.12 #5	−0.03 #17	CIN
Success rate	49% #6	39% #8	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

BAL scoring against the CIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BAL scored	7.8 #5	7.5 #14	15.3 #5	5.3 #13	6.0 #12	11.3 #14
CIN allowed	2.5 #3	11.3 #32	13.8 #27	6.0 #25	6.3 #21	12.3 #21

CIN scoring against the BAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CIN scored	4.3 #17	8.3 #8	12.5 #13	7.5 #3	5.5 #16	13.0 #6
BAL allowed	3.3 #7	3.8 #5	7.0 #4	5.3 #18	9.8 #31	15.0 #31

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.