Panthers @ Bears: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2024)

Sun, Oct 6, 2024, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Chicago Bears

Weather at kickoff73°F18 mphgusts 28DryWindy Over 46% of 93 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Carolina Panthers

1-3 · Power #32

final

Final

Chicago Bears

2-2 · Power #24

▲ winner

Closing spread

CHI -3.5

✓ CHI W

Total

39.5

▲ Over · 46 pts

Model before kickoff

CAR 17–21 CHI

✓ CHI (63%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCHI -5.5

CloseCHI -3.5

Total43.5 → 39.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCHI -5.5

2 → CAR

CloseCHI -3.5

2 pts toward Carolina Panthers

Total

Open43.5

▼ 4

Close39.5

Down 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened CHI -5.5 · closed CHI -3.5 · moved 2 toward CARmodel CHI -5.5

model CHI -5.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 70%, covered 57% (90 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCHI -5.5

CloseCHI -3.5

Total43.5 → 39.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CHI as a 3.5-point home favorite against CAR, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: CHI won 36–10; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 46 points went over 39.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 60%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 43%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.9 against an average line of 4.1; 35.5 points a game (usually 43.5). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	TB vs CAR 2023 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-3.5	21–18	L	O37
Loose	PIT vs NYJ 2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar team ratings & situation	-3	20–24	L	O41.5
Loose	TEN vs CAR 2023 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest & situation	-3.5	17–10	W	U36
Loose	JAX vs CAR 2023 · Week 17 · loose · similar rest & season form	-3.5	26–0	W	U38
Loose	CHI vs ARI 2023 · Week 16 · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-4.5	27–16	W	O42
Loose	CHI vs CAR 2023 · Week 10 · loose · similar situation	-3.5	16–13	L	U38
Loose	CLE vs NYG 2024 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-6.5	15–21	L	U37.5
Loose	SEA vs MIA 2024 · Week 3 · loose · similar spread & season form	-4.5	24–3	W	U41.5
Loose	CAR vs ATL 2021 · Week 14 · loose · similar season form & team ratings	-2.5	21–29	L	O42
Loose	PIT vs ARI 2023 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-6	10–24	L	U41

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CAR LLWL	1-3	25%	1-1	1-3
CHI WWLW	3-1	75%	2-0	2-0

Venue/role: CAR away, as underdog; CHI home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CAR OUOO	3-1	75%	1-3
CHI UUUO	1-3	25%	2-2

Went over in Q3. Of 59 earlier overs in games with totals 36.5–42.5, 24% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CAR	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
CHI	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

CAR 4–9 CHI CHI leads · 13 games since 2002 · CHI has won the last 5 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 9 2023	Carolina Panthers 13 @ Chicago Bears 16	CHI -3.5	CAR W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CAR−2.5 →−4.1▼ 1.6#32

CHI−0.3 →−0.8▼ 0.5#19

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

CAR

Longer bar = better

CHI

#24

Offense

Even

#27

#28

Defense

CHI better ▶

0.0 #15

Turnovers

CHI better ▶

+0.5 #8

60 plays #18

Pace

CHI faster ▶

64 plays #8

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CAR has the ball

Advantage: CHI defense

	CAR off	CHI def	Edge
Points / game	18.3 #25	18.8 #8	CHI
Yards / play	4.83 #24	5.05 #10	CHI
EPA / play	−0.15 #25	−0.15 #5	CHI
Success rate	40% #23	40% #10	CHI

When CHI has the ball

Even matchup

	CHI off	CAR def	Edge
Points / game	19.3 #21	32.3 #32	CHI
Yards / play	3.94 #31	5.77 #26	CAR
EPA / play	−0.18 #26	+0.10 #28	Even
Success rate	38% #28	48% #27	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

CAR scoring against the CHI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CAR scored	1.8 #28	7.8 #11	9.5 #20	5.8 #10	3.0 #27	8.8 #22
CHI allowed	3.3 #7	8.3 #24	11.5 #15	2.5 #4	4.8 #12	7.3 #4

CHI scoring against the CAR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CHI scored	0.8 #31	5.0 #23	5.8 #30	4.3 #18	9.3 #2	13.5 #4
CAR allowed	9.3 #32	10.3 #30	19.5 #32	5.0 #16	7.8 #27	12.8 #24

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.