Buccaneers @ Falcons: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2024)

Thu, Oct 3, 2024, 8:15 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Atlanta Falcons · Division game

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

3-1 · Power #7

final

Final

Atlanta Falcons

2-2 · Power #20

▲ winner

Closing spread

ATL -2.5

✓ ATL W

Total

43.5

▲ Over · 66 pts

Model before kickoff

TB 21–24 ATL

✓ ATL (58%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenATL -2.5

CloseATL -2.5

Total42.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenATL -2.5

no move

CloseATL -2.5

No change since the open

Total

Open42.5

▲ 1

Close43.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ATL -2.5 · unchangedmodel ATL -0.5

model ATL -0.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 69%, covered 55% (86 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenATL -2.5

CloseATL -2.5

Total42.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ATL as a 2.5-point home favorite against TB, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: ATL won 36–30; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 66 points went over 43.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 44%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 0.2 against an average line of 2.5; 50 points a game (usually 43.7). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	IND vs CHI 2024 · Week 3 · very close · similar season form & team ratings	-2.5	21–16	W	U43.5
Close	MIN vs NE 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	33–26	W	O41.5
Loose	TEN vs GB 2024 · Week 3 · loose · similar spread & season form	-2.5	14–30	L	O36.5
Loose	ARI vs NO 2022 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & situation	-2.5	42–34	W	O44
Loose	CLE vs NE 2022 · Week 6 · loose · similar season form & team ratings	-2.5	15–38	L	O43.5
Loose	ATL vs IND 2023 · Week 16 · loose · similar season form & situation	-2.5	29–10	W	U44
Loose	CIN vs MIN 2023 · Week 15 · loose · similar team ratings & season form	-3	27–24	P	O41.5
Loose	LV vs DEN 2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation & team ratings	-3	32–23	W	O45.5
Loose	ATL vs CAR 2021 · Week 8 · loose · similar situation & team ratings	-2.5	13–19	L	U46.5
Loose	ATL vs TB 2023 · Week 14 · loose · similar situation & team ratings	-1.5	25–29	L	O41.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TB WWLW	3-1	75%	1-0	2-0
ATL LWLL	1-3	25%	0-3	0-2

Venue/role: TB away, as underdog; ATL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TB OUUO	2-2	50%	3-1
ATL UUUO	1-3	25%	2-2

Went over in Q3. Of 64 earlier overs in games with totals 40.5–46.5, 19% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TB	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%
ATL	4-6 40%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

TB 25–25 ATL Series tied · 50 games since 1999 · ATL has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 10 2023	Tampa Bay Buccaneers 29 @ Atlanta Falcons 25	ATL -1.5	TB W
Oct 22 2023	Atlanta Falcons 16 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13	TB -2.5	ATL W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TB+0.1 →+0.4▲ 0.3#14

ATL−0.8 →−1.1▼ 0.3#20

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

Longer bar = better

ATL

#12

Offense

◀ TB better

#17

Defense

Even

#18

+0.5 #6

Turnovers

◀ TB better

−0.3 #21

60 plays #22

Pace

◀ TB faster

54 plays #31

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TB has the ball

Advantage: TB offense

	TB off	ATL def	Edge
Points / game	24.3 #11	21.3 #14	Even
Yards / play	5.36 #17	4.88 #7	ATL
EPA / play	+0.02 #13	+0.05 #23	TB
Success rate	47% #7	49% #28	TB

When ATL has the ball

Even matchup

	ATL off	TB def	Edge
Points / game	18.8 #22	19.5 #9	TB
Yards / play	5.75 #10	5.18 #13	Even
EPA / play	−0.06 #21	+0.01 #21	Even
Success rate	43% #16	46% #25	ATL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

TB scoring against the ATL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TB scored	6.5 #8	8.5 #6	15.0 #5	5.0 #16	4.3 #23	9.3 #21
ATL allowed	2.5 #3	8.3 #24	10.8 #13	5.3 #16	5.3 #16	10.5 #18

ATL scoring against the TB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ATL scored	4.3 #16	7.5 #13	11.8 #14	3.0 #25	4.0 #24	7.0 #27
TB allowed	4.3 #15	5.8 #14	10.0 #12	6.5 #26	3.0 #4	9.5 #15

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.