Saints @ Falcons: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2024)

Sun, Sep 29, 2024, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Atlanta Falcons · Division game

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

New Orleans Saints

2-1 · Power #25

final

Final

Atlanta Falcons

1-2 · Power #20

▲ winner

Closing spread

ATL -2.5

✓ NO W

Total

42.5

▲ Over · 50 pts

Model before kickoff

NO 22–24 ATL

✓ ATL (57%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenATL -1.5

CloseATL -2.5

Total43.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenATL -1.5

1 → ATL

CloseATL -2.5

1 pt toward Atlanta Falcons

Total

Open43.5

▼ 1

Close42.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ATL -1.5 · closed ATL -2.5 · moved 1 toward ATLmodel NO -1.5

model NO -1.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 70%, covered 57% (80 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenATL -1.5

CloseATL -2.5

Total43.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 1 games most like ATL as a 2.5-point home favorite against NO, the favorite won 0, covered 0, and 1 went over the total.

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This game: ATL won 26–24; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 1 of the 1 similar games. 50 points went over 42.5, as in 1 of 1.

Favorite won

0 of 10%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

0 of 10%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

1 of 1100%

Normal range · usually 43%

Only 1 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: underdog by 16 against an average line of 2; 50 points a game (usually 43.6). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 1 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	CLE vs DAL 2024 · Week 1 · loose · similar total & spread	-2	17–33	L	O42.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NO WWL	2-1	67%	1-0	1-0
ATL LWL	1-2	33%	0-2	0-1

Venue/role: NO away, as underdog; ATL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NO OOU	2-1	67%	2-1
ATL UUU	0-3	0%	1-2

Went over in Q4. Of 63 earlier overs in games with totals 39.5–45.5, 17% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NO	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
ATL	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

NO 32–23 ATL NO leads · 55 games since 1999 · ATL has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Jan 7 2023	Atlanta Falcons 17 @ New Orleans Saints 48	NO -3	NO W
Nov 26 2023	New Orleans Saints 15 @ Atlanta Falcons 24	NO -2	ATL W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NO+0.5 →+2.2▲ 1.7#6

ATL−0.8 →−1.2▼ 0.4#23

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

Longer bar = better

ATL

Offense

◀ NO better

#19

Defense

◀ NO better

#18

+1.3 #3

Turnovers

◀ NO better

−0.7 #25

58 plays #24

Pace

◀ NO faster

55 plays #28

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NO has the ball

Advantage: NO offense

	NO off	ATL def	Edge
Points / game	34.3 #2	20.3 #13	NO
Yards / play	5.95 #7	4.76 #10	Even
EPA / play	+0.15 #3	+0.04 #23	NO
Success rate	45% #15	49% #25	NO

When ATL has the ball

Advantage: NO defense

	ATL off	NO def	Edge
Points / game	16.3 #26	14.7 #5	NO
Yards / play	5.62 #13	5.35 #18	ATL
EPA / play	−0.09 #22	−0.19 #6	NO
Success rate	43% #16	37% #6	NO

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

NO scoring against the ATL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NO scored	11.3 #1	11.3 #2	22.7 #1	4.3 #18	7.3 #6	11.7 #13
ATL allowed	1.0 #1	8.7 #25	9.7 #12	6.0 #27	4.7 #18	10.7 #20

ATL scoring against the NO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ATL scored	3.3 #18	6.7 #10	10.0 #18	3.0 #26	3.3 #24	6.3 #26
NO allowed	1.0 #1	5.3 #10	6.3 #3	3.3 #9	5.0 #20	8.3 #13

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.