Vikings @ Packers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2024)

Sun, Sep 29, 2024, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Green Bay Packers · Division game

Weather at kickoff69°F13 mphgusts 25DryWindy Over 46% of 93 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Minnesota Vikings

3-0 · Power #8

▲ winner

Final

Green Bay Packers

2-1 · Power #5

final

Closing spread

GB -2.5

✓ MIN W

Total

44.5

▲ Over · 60 pts

Model before kickoff

MIN 21–23 GB

✗ GB (59%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenGB -2.5

CloseGB -2.5

Total42.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenGB -2.5

no move

CloseGB -2.5

No change since the open

Total

Open42.5

▲ 2

Close44.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened GB -2.5 · unchangedmodel GB -3.5

model GB -3.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 70%, covered 57% (80 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenGB -2.5

CloseGB -2.5

Total42.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 7 games most like GB as a 2.5-point home favorite against MIN, the favorite won 4, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: MIN won 31–29 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 7 similar games. 60 points went over 44.5, as in 5 of 7.

Favorite won

4 of 757%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

4 of 757%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 771%

Normal range · usually 43%

Only 7 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 3.9 against an average line of 3; 51.3 points a game (usually 43.6). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 7 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	BAL vs MIA 2022 · Week 2 · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-3.5	38–42	L	O43.5
Loose	BAL vs DET 2023 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & situation	-3.5	38–6	W	O43.5
Loose	PHI vs MIN 2022 · Week 2 · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-3	24–7	W	U49.5
Loose	CLE vs ARI 2021 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & situation	-3	14–37	L	O48.5
Loose	PHI vs DAL 2023 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest & situation	-3.5	28–23	W	O46.5
Loose	PIT vs LAC 2024 · Week 3 · loose · similar spread & rest	-2.5	20–10	W	U35.5
Loose	TB vs KC 2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & situation	-2	31–41	L	O47.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIN WWW	3-0	100%	1-0	3-0
GB LWW	2-1	67%	1-0	—

Venue/role: MIN away, as underdog; GB home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIN UUU	0-3	0%	3-0
GB OUO	2-1	67%	2-1

Went over in Q4. Of 60 earlier overs in games with totals 41.5–47.5, 17% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MIN	4-6 40%	4-4-2 50%	4-6 40%
GB	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

MIN 24–31 GB (2 tied) GB leads · 57 games since 1999 · MIN has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 31 2023	Green Bay Packers 33 @ Minnesota Vikings 10	GB -1	GB W
Oct 29 2023	Minnesota Vikings 24 @ Green Bay Packers 10	Pick’em	MIN W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MIN−0.1 →+2.3▲ 2.4#5

GB+0.5 →+1.7▲ 1.2#8

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

MIN

Longer bar = better

Offense

◀ MIN better

#10

Defense

◀ MIN better

#15

+0.7 #6

Turnovers

GB better ▶

+2.3 #1

55 plays #27

Pace

GB faster ▶

61 plays #14

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MIN has the ball

Advantage: MIN offense

	MIN off	GB def	Edge
Points / game	28.3 #3	19.3 #12	MIN
Yards / play	5.99 #6	5.47 #20	MIN
EPA / play	+0.08 #8	−0.11 #9	Even
Success rate	48% #8	44% #20	MIN

When GB has the ball

Advantage: MIN defense

	GB off	MIN def	Edge
Points / game	25.0 #7	10.0 #2	MIN
Yards / play	6.39 #2	4.71 #6	Even
EPA / play	+0.09 #7	−0.22 #3	Even
Success rate	39% #25	37% #5	MIN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

MIN scoring against the GB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIN scored	8.0 #5	5.7 #17	13.7 #7	9.3 #1	5.3 #18	14.7 #2
GB allowed	2.3 #4	5.7 #15	8.0 #6	8.0 #30	3.3 #8	11.3 #21

GB scoring against the MIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GB scored	11.0 #2	5.3 #19	16.3 #4	5.7 #8	3.0 #26	8.7 #21
MIN allowed	1.0 #1	2.3 #2	3.3 #1	3.3 #9	3.3 #8	6.7 #7

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.