Texans @ Vikings: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2024)

Sun, Sep 22, 2024, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Minnesota Vikings

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Houston Texans

2-0 · Power #11

final

Final

Minnesota Vikings

2-0 · Power #8

▲ winner

Closing spread

HOU -2

✓ MIN W

Total

46.5

▼ Under · 41 pts

Model before kickoff

HOU 25–23 MIN

✗ HOU (57%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenHOU -2.5

CloseHOU -2

Total46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenHOU -2.5

0.5 → MIN

CloseHOU -2

0.5 pts toward Minnesota Vikings

Total

Open46.5

no move

Close46.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened HOU -2.5 · closed HOU -2 · moved 0.5 toward MINmodel HOU -1

model HOU -1

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 0.5–4 since 2023: won 63%, covered 51% (52 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenHOU -2.5

CloseHOU -2

Total46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 3 games most like HOU as a 2-point road favorite at MIN, the favorite won 2, covered 1, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: MIN won 34–7 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 2 of the 3 similar games. 41 points stayed under 46.5, as in 1 of 3.

Favorite won

2 of 367%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

1 of 333%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

2 of 367%

Normal range · usually 43%

Only 3 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 1 against an average line of 3.2; 48.3 points a game (usually 43.4). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 3 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	SF @ MIN 2024 · Week 2 · loose · similar total & situation	-3.5	17–23	L	U46.5
Loose	SEA @ NE 2024 · Week 2 · loose · similar rest & situation	-3.5	23–20	L	O39.5
Loose	MIN @ CAR 2021 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest	-2.5	34–28	W	O45.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
HOU LL	0-2	0%	0-1	0-2
MIN WW	2-0	100%	1-0	2-0

Venue/role: HOU away, as favorite; MIN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
HOU OU	1-1	50%	2-0
MIN UU	0-2	0%	2-0

Stayed under: it needed 19 in the 4th quarter and got 13. 48% of games with totals 43.5–49.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
HOU	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	4-5-1 44%
MIN	4-6 40%	4-4-2 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

HOU 0–6 MIN MIN leads · 6 games since 2004 · MIN has won the last 6 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

HOU+0.1 →+1.4▲ 1.3#9

MIN−0.1 →+1.3▲ 1.4#10

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

HOU

Longer bar = better

MIN

#16

Offense

MIN better ▶

Defense

Even

+1.0 #6

Turnovers

◀ HOU better

0.0 #16

69 plays #6

Pace

◀ HOU faster

53 plays #29

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When HOU has the ball

Advantage: MIN defense

	HOU off	MIN def	Edge
Points / game	24.0 #11	11.5 #3	MIN
Yards / play	5.31 #19	4.71 #10	MIN
EPA / play	+0.01 #14	−0.22 #4	MIN
Success rate	42% #19	40% #12	MIN

When MIN has the ball

Even matchup

	MIN off	HOU def	Edge
Points / game	25.5 #8	20.0 #14	MIN
Yards / play	6.81 #2	4.66 #7	MIN
EPA / play	+0.06 #9	−0.17 #6	Even
Success rate	49% #5	36% #5	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 2 teams

HOU scoring against the MIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HOU scored	4.5	9.5	14.0	1.5	8.5	10.0
MIN allowed	1.5	3.5	5.0	1.5	5.0	6.5

MIN scoring against the HOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIN scored	5.0	8.5	13.5	10.5	1.5	12.0
HOU allowed	5.0	3.5	8.5	3.0	8.5	11.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.