Seahawks @ Patriots: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2024)

Sun, Sep 15, 2024, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 2 · at New England Patriots

Weather at kickoff77°F4 mphgusts 14DryWeather watch ›

Seattle Seahawks

1-0 · Power #19

▲ winner

Final

New England Patriots

1-0 · Power #30

final

Closing spread

SEA -3.5

✓ NE W

Total

39.5

▲ Over · 43 pts

Model before kickoff

SEA 24–20 NE

✓ SEA (62%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSEA -3.5

CloseSEA -3.5

Total42.5 → 39.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenSEA -3.5

no move

CloseSEA -3.5

No change since the open

Total

Open42.5

▼ 3

Close39.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened SEA -3.5 · unchangedmodel SEA -3

model SEA -3

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–5.5 since 2023: won 58%, covered 48% (53 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSEA -3.5

CloseSEA -3.5

Total42.5 → 39.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 4 games most like SEA as a 3.5-point road favorite at NE, the favorite won 3, covered 3, and 1 went over the total.

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This game: SEA won 23–20; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 1 of the 4 similar games. 43 points went over 39.5, as in 1 of 4.

Favorite won

3 of 475%

Normal range · usually 60%

Favorite covered

3 of 475%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

1 of 425%

Normal range · usually 43%

Only 4 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 3.8 against an average line of 2.6; 36.8 points a game (usually 43.6). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 4 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	NO @ MIN 2023 · Week 10 · loose · similar rest & season form	-3	19–27	L	O41
Loose	NE @ NYJ 2022 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & situation	-1.5	22–17	W	U40
Loose	DET @ TB 2023 · Week 6 · loose · similar team ratings	-3.5	20–6	W	U42.5
Loose	CIN @ TEN 2022 · Week 12 · loose	-2.5	20–16	W	U42.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SEA L	0-1	0%	—	0-1
NE W	1-0	100%	—	1-0

Venue/role: SEA away, as favorite; NE home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SEA O	1-0	100%	1-0
NE U	0-1	0%	1-0

Went over in Q4. Of 50 earlier overs in games with totals 36.5–42.5, 26% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SEA	5-5 50%	4-5-1 44%	5-5 50%
NE	3-7 30%	4-5-1 44%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

SEA 6–3 NE SEA leads · 9 games since 2004 · SEA has won the last 5 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SEA−0.6 →−0.1▲ 0.5#18

NE−1.8 →−0.9▲ 0.9#21

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

SEA

Longer bar = better

#17

Offense

Even

#19

Defense

◀ SEA better

#10

+1.0 #11

Turnovers

NE better ▶

+2.0 #7

60 plays #17

Pace

NE faster ▶

64 plays #11

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SEA has the ball

Advantage: NE defense

	SEA off	NE def	Edge
Points / game	26.0 #14	10.0 #4	NE
Yards / play	5.07 #19	4.67 #12	NE
EPA / play	−0.08 #18	−0.18 #9	NE
Success rate	43% #16	42% #14	Even

When NE has the ball

Advantage: SEA defense

	NE off	SEA def	Edge
Points / game	16.0 #26	20.0 #16	SEA
Yards / play	4.53 #22	3.35 #3	SEA
EPA / play	−0.01 #16	−0.31 #5	SEA
Success rate	44% #13	28% #2	SEA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.