Buccaneers @ Lions: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2024)

Sun, Sep 15, 2024, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Detroit Lions

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

1-0 · Power #7

▲ winner

Final

Detroit Lions

1-0 · Power #3

final

Closing spread

DET -7.5

✓ TB W

Total

51.5

▼ Under · 36 pts

Model before kickoff

TB 21–28 DET

✗ DET (74%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenDET -6.5

CloseDET -7.5

Total48.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenDET -6.5

1 → DET

CloseDET -7.5

1 pt toward Detroit Lions

Total

Open48.5

▲ 3

Close51.5

Up 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened DET -6.5 · closed DET -7.5 · moved 1 toward DETmodel DET -3

model DET -3

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 5.5–9.5 since 2023: won 73%, covered 53% (49 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7Too few earlier games to rateⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenDET -6.5

CloseDET -7.5

Total48.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 3 games most like DET as a 7.5-point home favorite against TB, the favorite won 0, covered 0, and 1 went over the total.

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This game: TB won 20–16 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 3 similar games. 36 points stayed under 51.5, as in 2 of 3.

Favorite won

0 of 30%

Below normal · usually 70%

Favorite covered

0 of 30%

Normal range · usually 45%

Went over

1 of 333%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 3 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: underdog by 14.3 against an average line of 6.8; 47.7 points a game (usually 46.7). When games like this go over ›

All 3 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	LAR vs TEN 2021 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest	-7	16–28	L	U53
Loose	KC vs CIN 2021 · Postseason · loose · similar rest	-7	24–27	L	U54.5
Loose	LAC vs JAX 2022 · Week 3 · loose · similar team ratings	-6.5	10–38	L	O45.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TB W	1-0	100%	—	—
DET W	1-0	100%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: TB away, as underdog; DET home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TB O	1-0	100%	1-0
DET U	0-1	0%	1-0

Stayed under: it needed 16 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 30% of games with totals 48.5–54.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TB	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%
DET	7-3 70%	8-2 80%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

TB 11–10 DET TB leads · 21 games since 1999 · DET has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Jan 21 2023	Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23 @ Detroit Lions 31	DET -6	DET W
Oct 15 2023	Detroit Lions 20 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6	DET -3.5	DET W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TB+0.1 →+0.7▲ 0.6#11

DET+1.6 →+1.6–#8

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

Longer bar = better

DET

Offense

◀ TB better

#21

Defense

Even

#18

0.0 #15

Turnovers

Even

0.0 #13

61 plays #14

Pace

Even

61 plays #13

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TB has the ball

Advantage: TB offense

	TB off	DET def	Edge
Points / game	37.0 #2	20.0 #13	TB
Yards / play	6.43 #4	5.23 #15	TB
EPA / play	+0.27 #1	+0.04 #19	TB
Success rate	53% #2	47% #25	TB

When DET has the ball

Advantage: DET offense

	DET off	TB def	Edge
Points / game	26.0 #13	20.0 #15	Even
Yards / play	5.95 #8	5.34 #16	DET
EPA / play	+0.11 #9	+0.12 #25	DET
Success rate	51% #4	48% #28	DET

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.