Falcons @ Eagles: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2024)

Mon, Sep 16, 2024, 8:15 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Philadelphia Eagles

Weather at kickoff70°F8 mphgusts 15DryWeather watch ›

Atlanta Falcons

0-1 · Power #20

▲ winner

Final

Philadelphia Eagles

1-0 · Power #2

final

Closing spread

PHI -5.5

✓ ATL W

Total

46.5

▼ Under · 43 pts

Model before kickoff

ATL 21–27 PHI

✗ PHI (69%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPHI -4

ClosePHI -5.5

Total48.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenPHI -4

1.5 → PHI

ClosePHI -5.5

1.5 pts toward Philadelphia Eagles

Total

Open48.5

▼ 2

Close46.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened PHI -4 · closed PHI -5.5 · moved 1.5 toward PHImodel PHI -5.5 matches the line

model PHI -5.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 3.5–7.5 since 2023: won 69%, covered 51% (80 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPHI -4

ClosePHI -5.5

Total48.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like PHI as a 5.5-point home favorite against ATL, the favorite won 9, covered 5, and 0 went over the total.

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This game: ATL won 22–21 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 43 points stayed under 46.5, as in 10 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 43%

Went over

0 of 100%

Below normal · usually 46%

Overs below normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 7.4 against an average line of 5.8; 35.2 points a game (usually 45.2). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	LV vs CHI 2021 · Week 5 · loose	-5.5	9–20	L	U46
Loose	HOU vs ARI 2023 · Week 11 · loose	-5.5	21–16	L	U48
Loose	CLE vs CHI 2021 · Week 3 · loose · similar situation	-7.5	26–6	W	U44.5
Loose	GB vs PIT 2021 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation & team ratings	-6	27–17	W	U45
Loose	SEA vs LAR 2022 · Week 18 · loose	-5	19–16	L	U43
Loose	DEN vs WSH 2021 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & situation	-4	17–10	W	U45
Loose	SEA vs JAX 2021 · Week 8 · loose · similar situation	-4	31–7	W	U44.5
Loose	LAC vs LV 2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation	-6.5	24–17	W	U49
Loose	MIA vs PIT 2022 · Week 7 · loose · similar situation	-7	16–10	L	U44
Loose	BAL vs CLE 2022 · Week 7 · loose · similar situation	-6.5	23–20	L	U46.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ATL L	0-1	0%	—	—
PHI W	1-0	100%	—	1-0

Venue/role: ATL away, as underdog; PHI home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ATL U	0-1	0%	0-1
PHI O	1-0	100%	1-0

Stayed under: it needed 22 in the 4th quarter and got 18. 49% of games with totals 43.5–49.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ATL	3-7 30%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%
PHI	4-6 40%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

ATL 6–12 PHI PHI leads · 18 games since 2000 · ATL has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ATL−0.8 →−1.6▼ 0.8#27

PHI−0.1 →+0.1▲ 0.2#15

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

ATL

Longer bar = better

PHI

#26

Offense

PHI better ▶

Defense

◀ ATL better

#28

−3.0 #32

Turnovers

Even

−2.0 #31

50 plays #31

Pace

PHI faster ▶

74 plays #1

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ATL has the ball

Even matchup

	ATL off	PHI def	Edge
Points / game	10.0 #31	29.0 #29	Even
Yards / play	4.52 #26	7.14 #32	ATL
EPA / play	−0.35 #31	+0.18 #30	Even
Success rate	43% #17	42% #19	Even

When PHI has the ball

Even matchup

	PHI off	ATL def	Edge
Points / game	34.0 #3	18.0 #6	Even
Yards / play	5.54 #15	4.09 #3	ATL
EPA / play	+0.06 #7	−0.10 #11	Even
Success rate	47% #8	39% #9	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.